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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (69101)	7/3/2000 12:23:49 PM
From: Aggie	Respond to of 95453

Hello JQ What's with the OIX today? Commodity prices are still high and most of the majors and big independants are in positive territory today. I note a discrepancy on OSX quotes between Yahoo and Schlumberger sites. Is this a Yahoo problem? I have to agree on this debt accretion with the drillers. Still, DO is a bargain at these prices, and if I wasn't so loaded up I'd consider adding. Regards to all, Aggie

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (69101)	7/3/2000 12:57:42 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Are they struggling to survive or are they about to go on an aggressive buildout? It can be argued that capital is cheap now but if market conditions continue to improve for them capital will still be cheap (or cheaper) won't it? During the last up cycle, I don't think the drillers had the vision to strengthen their cash positions and they paid dearly for this lack of foresight. Had they incurred the debt before the downturn, they could have gone on a firesale buying spree at bargain basement prices. There were many companies available to be purchased on the cheap at the end of 1998 and early 1999. My main knock against DO is that they had a boat load of cash and did VERY little buying when they should have been loading up (but it's easy for me to say now, in hindsight). Look at FLC, their high debt load should start to pay off with the new up cycle. It will take them a while to catch up, but if this cycle doesn't end abruptly they will be rewarded handsomely. If you don't have faith in BOOM2000, then I would stay away from the drillers. If you believe that oil prices are going to come crashing down, then I wouldn't be putting new money to work in the patch. On the other hand, if you believe that we are still at the relative beginning of this boom cycle, as I do, then one should consider where the 'sweetspots' of the market are. I believe the offshore drillers will be one of the sweetspots for the next year or 3. Therefore, I have put money to work in this segment of the industry. Time will tell whether or not my reasoning is sound or if I'm just making a fool of myself! I respect the opinions of others on this thread and I've been able to generate terrific profits thanks in part to the sharing of information here on SD. I've been returning some of my profits back to the patch lately, buying companies I think haven't been given the proper 'respect' by the street. DO, ATW, RIG, GLM and FLC fit this bill, in my opinion. I'm always open to opposing views....unless they are made by Slider<vbg>!! Michael