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Non-Tech : 1000% returns are cool !!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marq Spencer who wrote (2305)	7/3/2000 12:34:09 PM
From: If only I'd held	Respond to of 3326

Sounds good, but I beleive there is better blood in stock selling schemes like gARBAge and ASKAM (ARBA, AKAM) If there is gonna be doldrums, I bet the jackasses buying these bloated pigs will be so doled out, they will be jumping out windows. There is nothing, and I mean nothing that these clunkers could possibly do to justify these valuations. They are doomed and so are their investors. Pssst, AETH is a pig too, but you didn't hear that from me. That's an opinion.

To: Marq Spencer who wrote (2305)	7/3/2000 2:19:36 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3326

As long time ORCL holder, $60 may too optimistic. You posted some of the reasons I've seen bantered on the net. Let me address some of those. First a look at revenues for the last four quarters. Adjusted EPS 0.16 to 0.26 to 0.17a to 0.31a May00 per briefing.com Unadjusted EPS 0.08 to 0.13 to 0.25 to 1.63 May00 per Hoovers Revs 1,984.5M to 2,321.9M to 2,449.4M to 3,374.3 May00 Per Hoovers ORCL is the dominant database software for the net. This is why the capitalization is in the top five in the country. Ray Lane's resignation will cause a momentary downtrend in ORCL, but too many institutions will buy if it gets down to $70. Talking heads trying to make this into a reason to sell, but Ellison is the company, not Lane. 15% revenue growth is actually good for the size of the company. Institutions look at net income also. Net income totaled $6.30 billion, up from $1.29 billion per Yahoo. Forget the PE. You would have never bought it at $12 either, using PE. ORCL's PE is always higher than average since it is a market leader. You always pay a premium to get a king or a gorilla. Per Yahoo Price/Book (mrq) 36.93 Price/Earnings (ttm) 40.09 Price/Sales (ttm) 24.88 I think that these are wrong on first glance. I was think PE around 100 too. Of course the May earnings were monsterous, nearly more than the three prior quarters combined. Summer tech dolrums ahead. ORCL withstood the Nasdaq collapse better than 90% of the tech stocks. It hasn't touched the 200 day EMA in over a year. This is why the selling won't happen. It is a hedge against tech crash. I expect to cover at $60 within the next 60 days. The 200 day EMA is at $60. Won't go to $60 unless Ellison has a stroke using historical charting. Stock has made a lower high (90 in late March, 87 in late June) It is consolidating after the huge Nov99-Mar00 runup. I think there are better companies to short than ORCL. Pluvia, A@P, and Auric can ferret out the true dogs. Hoping for a 25% decline is unrealistic unless the whole market goes in the crapper. Then whatever you short will work. Jack