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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: alburk who wrote (27245)	7/3/2000 6:39:53 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

Andy, << Will Q be the 3G Gorilla? Gorilla Game experts please help >> It is too early to tell. In my opinion, No. The world loves open standards, which is why there are so few gorillas. The preponderance of 3G implementations will conform to several open standards. Wireless Telecom loves open standards, and won't implement anything without a standard of some type (although they may implement something proprietary as an interim if no standard exists - e.g. DoCoMo iMODE or WCDMA). This fact has limited CDMA adoption (which is still VERY substantial) because Qualcomm has complete architectural control of CDMA, and has established the appropriate value chain to support this. << It seems to me that Q’s gorilla status at this point is limited to 1G and 2G CDMA enabling technology—CDMA wireless voice communications enabling technology. We are all expecting Q’s gorilla status to encompass 2G CDMA data. >> 1G is analog. Voice only No data (except for CDPD as an overlay). No CDMA except as it overlays AMPS 800 MHz analog spectrum and supplements AMPS. Sort of like CDPD. 2G is digital. CDMA is a 2G Digital Air Interface based on an IS-95 network. IS-95A with 14.4kbps cs data, IS-95-B with 64 kbps ps data, and IS-95-C (1xMC phase 0) with 144 kbps ps data, all in existing spectrum (800/1800/1900 MHz). << But, the future hinges on 3G voice and data >> No. 3G is NOT about voice and data (although it will include it). 3G is about MULTIMEDIA. Voice and data has been here since 1992 (GSM). 2.5G is about data at acceptable data rates (GPRS, 1xMC CDMA, eventually EDGE). 3G is not necessary for voice and data. 2.5G has it covered. << 3G voice and data is the anticipated mass market >> Nobody outside of Asia has developed a business case for this. << The 3G tornado has yet to begin >> Not even close. <<Is the landslide in Q’s stock price explained by the markets assessment that Q does not have a lock on 3G gorilla status? >> No. << Can Q be the 3G gorilla >> Too early to tell. No Tornado, hence no gorilla. Qualcomm is the CDMA gorilla. << Gorilla Game experts please help >> Ask Merlin (Mike Buckley). He keeps score. - Eric -