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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (55971)	7/3/2000 5:26:45 PM
From: el paradisio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz,as you said...it is impossible to say when it will burst......................... I am taking the position on a bull side for now,because I am trying to time NOT a buble burst,but the Money Makers....like,in the post from LG. ================================================================= Richard Ney..."if you can discern what the (Specialist/MMs)intentions are,you can profit from it" ================================================================= Always from this point, I am starting my speculations and market direction analysis. .....Disclosure...I am bearish long term..... Regards,el

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (55971)	7/3/2000 5:51:50 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

anyone, Is 5.87% for the T-Bill close today bad data. That would be up close to 3% on the day. Joan

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (55971)	7/3/2000 8:43:59 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Can't We Solve For the Maximum Sustainable Money Supply The ability to continue to expand monetary debt is a dependant on the continued growth of the money supply. While nominally the growth in money should be a function of the growth in real goods and services the FOMC has shown that rather than taking such a proactive approach to establishing a growth rate for money, that it is more than willing to manage reactively. Furthermore, while they have indicated that domestic inflation is the effect that they are using to assess the extent to which the growth in the money supply is excessive, their willingness to continue to increase money supply in the context of unambiguous monetary inflation indicates that there is a significant willingness to tolerate inflation. At this point we have to assume that the US Central Bank will continue to expand the money supply, thereby continuing to allow both debt, and the price of equities, to continue the hyperinflation that has been characterized as a bubble, as long as they are allowed to. Since they are the supreme authority concerning the rate of growth of the US Money supply no authority in the United States that has this power. It appears that until there is deterioration in the exchange rate for the dollar with regards to those currencies used by foreign investors in the US Equity and Debt markets, and by those countries with which the US has the most significant trade imbalance. Until this point is reached, the adverse impact on the US Economy associated with excessive growth in the money supply will remain debatable. Once there is a material deterioration in the exchange rate any further expansion of the money supply will be useless. Any increase in US Dollars will be offset by a reduction of the foreign capital invested in the US Economy and an increase in the cost of imported goods and services. It would seem that the effective exchange rate associated with any particular rate of growth of the US money supply compared to foreign currency growth rates using supply and demand functions that assume that an investor or producer is indifferent to the currency they receive as long as it results in the maximum return of any alternative. Even more simplistically we could expect the exchange rate to change when the supply of dollars increases disproportionately as compared to a market basket of currencies, which I imagine would be dominated by the Euro and the Yen. If the monetary aggregates were normalized for the real growth rates in each world region it would seem that a useful sense of the immediacy of the necessity of a change in policy by the US Federal Reserve could be determined. Or as they used to say on the radio, “Money talks, bullsh!t walks”.