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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (55996)	7/3/2000 8:55:44 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Mobile home lending was going down the tubes before the internet meltup in 1999. Try summer of 1998. Oakwood and Greentree Financial hit the skids first. It was just a question of time before the no-money-down sales and repos were going to hit the other builders. Some were able to offset with RVs until recent quarter.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (55996)	7/5/2000 10:03:41 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Jacob, aside from anecdotal evidence, which is at best ambiguous (to wit: US citizens are inundated with credit card offers, at ever lower rates...i'm not so sure that mobile homes really count for much in the bigger scheme of things compared to the credit card flood), there are the cold hard facts of the increase in bank lending and asset backed securities markets, and as a result, money supply growth. none of the data suggest a slowing - on the contrary, the debt spiral has accelerated again. as for telco debt, in this segment over $500 bn. in new debt have been incurred over the past 12 months, not counting the recent mega issuance of Deutsche Telecom. we shall see if the returns on investment will justify this vast increase in debt. very likely a great deal of malinvestment has been encouraged by the Fed's too loose policy. i will revisit the telco debt issue at some point in the future - but it seems to me that fixed income specialists regard much of it as shaky. regards, hb .