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To: re3 who wrote (1928)	7/3/2000 10:48:22 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

This bear will be a 3-legged beast (no jokes, please!!)<G> The first leg ended on May 26 th. The second will begin in Mid July and will be precipitated by slowing earnings and dollar collapse. It will be the worst part, and will bring the Dow down to 8800 and the 'dung to 2700 or so by October. There will then be a strong rally precipitated by Dubya's election in November, but it will fail. The third leg will begin in January, and will see the numbers I posted. It will be preciptiated by widespread failures of financial institutions, and the total collapse of the real estate bubble. Gold will go to $1240/oz in this phase, prior to all private possession of physical gold being outlawed, and the nationalization of Gold Mining stocks. By then, we should have removed most of the froth from the markets. Happy Independence Day!

To: re3 who wrote (1928)	7/4/2000 7:12:03 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

ike,<p> I do not think Dow 8000 is too optimistic. Surely you can not think it out of the question.<p> I have learned much in these last few months. Some of this learning was expensive. My biggest mistake was not taking put profits, but holding for the "big one". I have learned to take a wider view and, more importantly, that all resources will be thrown at the bubble.<p> Many are now pushing their time horizon out to the fall. However, I feel strongly that there will be an important secondary correction before then.<p> I am struck by the following:<p> 1. The record net short position of commercials.<p> 2. The UFB complacency.<p> This will unwind some before the fall. --Allan PS: I am not fixing the formatting here. Did I mention that SI blows. I can not recall an interface that was so simple being jackscrewed so badly.