To: Dennis Roth who wrote (185 ) 7/4/2000 11:59:02 AM From: foundation Respond to of 197451 It appears to me, from THEIR press releases, that an optimistic roll out date for wCDMA is January 2003. I also believe that they err on the side of being too early in their projections for all the political reasons discussed. Also, this timetable does not even begin to factor in the litigation that may be expected. Placing QCOM's interests aside, the published account I recall had the number of co's claiming IPR for wCDMA at between 20 and 30. The prospect that these individual co's will agree to surrender their autonomy to a "patent pool", with a "commission" deciding the value of their IP and their resultant "cut" is so, well, Euro-bureaucratic-socialist in mindset. The idea itself is most amusing. I suspect the odds of success are nil.The standards "playing field" cannot be accurately gamed without including this vital component (time to market) in the equation . CDMA 1x this fall. The upgrade path for CDMA 2000 (Ruffian commented additionally on this last night on the "buy range" thread) is a known quantity. Inexpensive, speedy CDMA 2000 and HDR upgrades by mid 2000. 1 1/2 years MINIMUM, of full-blown CDMA 2000 before wCDMA rollout. 1 1/2 years MINIMUM, of 2 mbs data speeds, while Europe and NTT market the future advantages of wCDMA to their customers as they creep along at 10kbs. Will applicable carriers absorb the high costs of EDGE for the interim (to eke out a bit better speed), and do it again in 2003 for wCDMA, as they also pay the steep costs of new spectrum? 1 1/2 years MINIMUM, of NTT customers tempted by DDI's 3G services. 1 1/2 years MINIMUM, of I-Mode at 1/200th the speed of DDI's data services. NTT may be a big looser. How can it win? They cut deals with Korean telcoms, but these deals concern Korea backing wCDMA on new spectrum in return for a shot at Europe. Korean telcoms can mouth the wCDMA mantra, while, if they please, upgrading existing services on existing spectrum to CDMA 2000. In reality, they don't NEED the new spectrum except to play Europe . NTT can only win with Korea if you see Korea cancel 1x. NTT can only win in Japan if you see DDI cancel 1x. The "genie" must stay in the bottle for NTT to be in a power position. regards, blg