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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (84)	7/6/2000 1:14:31 AM
From: Dave-in-MarinCa	Respond to of 10065

Jay: Thanks for the link - I think your post is actually very much on-topic. I tried to sort through the productivity debate in post <http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=13984427>. I appreciate your link to Greenspan's June 13 speech in New York which may be very important. The details of his talk at <http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2000/20000613.htm> are particularly significant in his reference to Oliner and Sichel, "The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?" <www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2000/index.html>. In essence, Greenspan is endorsing Oliner/Sichels' contention that, "All in all, we estimate that the use of information technology and the production of computers accounted for about two-thirds of the 1 percentage point step-up in productivity growth between the first and second halves of the decade." And his endorsement will likely influence his thinking going forward on what the real, sustainable productivity improvement is and sustainable actual NAIRU and acceptable GDP growth rates are, ie, lower NAIRU and higher GDP numbers which translate into a lower feds fund rate per the PIMCO article in my July 2 post. This all suggests to me that Greenspan may, in fact, be nearly done raising rates, or is more likely to let considerable time pass before he makes his next move. Of course, who really knows.....certainly not me. All comments welcome.... Dave