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To: LLCF who wrote (2215)	7/6/2000 12:30:50 AM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Re: My problem with jib jobbing around without holding a majority short position is that although I look at betting on bounces while fair value is so far below todays close is that even if you're right 60-70% [hell of a trader IMO to get that %] of the time, right now that 30% could wipe out many X more than what you were hoping to gain. JMO To me it's like selling premium in the market... you win most of the time for sure, but your losers [especially now IMO] can wipe out many many winners. We differ, that's O.K. David, I think both of us are using different methods of identifying trading opportunities. You seem to be of the school of better be short now to not miss the "big one". I look at "news events" and take advantage of irrational exuberence, short and long. I think today's sell off in the SOX was overdone, but in my opinion you have to overlook valuation to see this. The SOX is due for a beating, don't get me wrong, but one this bad in one day will bring out Niles and co. to provide a rally, to start the day at least. I plan to take advantage of this as only a short term opportunity. I've only made a few of these calls this year, but all proved to be very profitable. Of course I'm taking a huge risk by going overnight, but that's all part of the game. If on Monday I identified a good opportunity of a SOX stock, I would've been killed today by news that wasn't available Monday. This is a risk of any overnight trade, long or short, but I feel like every once and a while you can identify a good trade. I feel like there are at least a few good bets a month, if you know an industry well enough. Tomorrow I expect to be 1 for 1 with posting my trades in real time. I got in the SOX at 3:30 at the lows and am up now. If we open flat I'm probably going to bail for a small gain. If it's up, I might ride it looking for a bigger score. I feel like I haven't seen such a sure bet in a long time. Most of this is off of reading the SSB report and seeing how flawed it was. I didn't see a lot of support today, but believe overnight we will see a lot of bullish comments on the sector. The street will buy the ANALyst comments and Maria will be talking about Niles comments and "Dee-RAM" at the open. JMHO chic hearne