Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (75434)	7/6/2000 12:27:57 AM
From: techguerrilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

But Frank, there comes a time . . . . where we have to stop rationalizing each step down and ask ourselves what will generate a motion upward. This is the second straight earnings month for Qualcomm where the Naz is removing "earnings runs" generally. The April 14 "crash" came right before Qualcomm's last earnings announcement and now we're having general tech earnings fears, if you will. Are there serious prospects Qualcomm will be above 60 on July 18, the day before its earnings announcement? Is holding Qualcomm on July 19 playing the lottery? An earnings miss would be a disaster. - john -

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (75434)	7/6/2000 12:52:09 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Frank, QCOM started the day near its YTD low. Issue rapidly rose to 63 on an anticipated recovery rally. But issue fell from 63 to close near session low for a 7% loss from session high. It closed at the YTD low close (I think). I believe this stuff is more significant (grave) than the drops seen in other issues you mention, since they are still well off their lows from March/April correction--those issues are retracing; QCOM, in contrast, is just declining. could just as easily signal a strong bottom as the beginning of a new step down It is anybody's guess where the stock goes from here, but in my mind, a strong bottom is one where you see a lot of volume and the stock rallies from there. QCOM rallied twice off of 60 on volume. This time, volume went away, and those hoping for a rally (inc. me) got the hell outta Dodge. Good luck, but I think QCOM needs a real event to get the market interested again. Even if (when) that happens, I don't know how long traders will stick around until we see a better earnings picture (sequential momentum, that is). The most recent rally off 60 (based on a few PRs from QCOM about "we have great IPR on WCDMA" blah blah blah and an announcement that a bunch of Chinese makers you've never heard of will make prototypes--in other words, the kind of news that's good for a trading rally, but not much more [in contrast to something like an omnibus NOK deal, which would have some staying power]) and the subsequent denouement are pretty emblematic of the trading range quagmire, IMO.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (75434)	7/6/2000 12:04:40 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

You could easily be right. I've learned the hard way to know what I don't know. I don't really know where or when the stock will bottom. But I think I know when a stock is fairly valued (60, for QCOM). So, I'll hold what I recently bought at 60 1/16 (even though I think we're probably going lower short-term), and buy in increments (every 5 points) till wherever the bottom is. If buying the dips gets me too heavily into the stock (20% in any one stock is my max comfort level), then I may lighten up some on the rallies, trying to lower my average cost basis. The two stocks on your list I own are the two that went down the least (MSFT and QCOM). Of course, the reason they went down the least today is because they have already had their valuation compressed severely this year. Quality companies at the bottom of their valuation range, with a lot of short-term (less than 12 months) bad news in the stock, are the safest to own, and that's where my money has migrated this year. I just wish a few more on the gorilla list would go out of favor like QCOM has, so I could buy them.