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To: chic_hearne who wrote (2289)	7/6/2000 11:19:58 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

chic, first of all, to divine the top of the semi cycle is a very hard thing to do...and secondly, one has to ask, how much of the good news is already reflected in prices? just look at the p/e's...those are not p/e's suitable for cyclical stocks. what's more, these stocks are overowned...crowded trades, everybody's in them. i wouldn't rule out the possibility of another run-up...the sector sure has shown remarkable resilience. but yesterday's action has shown you, in crowded trades, everybody waits to see who blinks first, and then it's a rush to the exits.

To: chic_hearne who wrote (2289)	7/6/2000 11:39:11 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Respond to of 436258

"You'd think they'd ride this out a little more? OTOH, it seems these markets are turning into trying to anticipate events farther and farther ahead of time." When the greatest fools have access to CNBC and the Internet and almost all the information the analysts do, then the lesser fools have to be able to get out quicker. I mean, we all know the semi cycle will turn down and probably within 1-2 years, possibly sooner. Now, why pay 100 PE for a stock like that, when you know you will have to sell it to someone and fairly soon, because you are certainly not getting your money back in the form of dividends and share buybacks quickly enough before the downturn happens. Really makes no sense, it's like buying the summer rally that everyone says will happen a month early. Same idea here - why not sell the semi downturn a year early, since everyone knows it could be here in a year, it just becomes a game of chicken as to when to sell, greed vs. fear. With all those big Janus positions and the like to distribute, they may have to start a year early. That being said, I bought more ADI today, but I see them as far from a semi play and think their earnings growth will march to it's own beat.