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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (56157)	7/6/2000 4:20:08 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

TA, if you think these baby step hikes are going to cool anything, you are mistaken. it is money supply growth that counts, and that hasn't been dented one bit by the rate hikes so far. you must not forget, we are now a global village...borrowings can be sourced from Japan or Europe at far lower rates (and this is happening in spades) and what's more, the asset backed securities markets have become WS's own money machine....every time the Fed taps lightly on the brakes, the GSE's issue more of their paper, and the banks step up their lending for securities purchases and real estate...someone always hops into the breech. during the first quarter it was the WS houses' turn. everything is thrown into the battle to keep the bubble afloat...and the Fed aids and abets, after all, what choice is there? we have seen what happens if money supply growth so much as slows to a 6% annualized rate (NAZ minus 40%). so this will continue to the bitter end...the pyramid of leverage will grow even larger, until the natural saturation point is reached. my conclusion is that after some backing and filling in the recent trading ranges (say 1250-1550 SPX), with a few scares thrown in to right the sentiment backdrop, the bubble will embark on the next leg of expansion...beginning from a cycle low this fall most likely. regards, hb .

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (56157)	7/6/2000 4:42:34 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

speaking of debt.... dailynews.yahoo.com bubble chump change...

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (56157)	7/6/2000 4:52:15 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

all: i would like to point out that today the put/call ratios seem to have dropped to very low levels again judging from preliminary data. while nothing is set in stone, and the statistical probability of a jobs report rally is usually close to 97%, it is remarkable that option players have apparently finally caught on to this phenomenon (i.e. "we ALWAYS rally on BLS data, especially the jobs report"). it is possible that this new-found enthusiasm for the jobs report rally may be the death knell of this particular phenomenon. it used to be that the jobs report was awaited with a certain amount of trepidation, and hedging activity in index options was the order of the day on the trading day preceding this important bit of economic data (why it should be considered important is beyond me...if there's a lagging economic indicator, this is it). but now all of a sudden people are complacent - no more hedging. regards, hb .