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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (15306)	7/6/2000 4:51:10 PM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 21876

Mr. Fun, Awesome info. thanks. Are you adding at present levels? tp

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (15306)	7/6/2000 4:59:20 PM
From: Clay Takaya	Respond to of 21876

Mr. Fun, Another excerpt, this time from your friend Eric Buck: Wasserstein Perella Securities Inc. analyst Eric Buck also cited rumors about an earnings miss in explaining Lucent's stock drop. "People have concerns that there may be some sort of profit warning coming," he said. He added that if Chief Financial Officer Deborah Hopkins got her way in implementing new processes, and those processes were implemented as early as the fiscal third quarter that ended in June, then "such a warning is probably likely." Buck explained that Hopkins, who assumed her new post in April, wants to change Lucent's policy of aggressively financing purchases by its customers and offering steep discounts on equipment as the end of a quarter approaches. If the company went along with Hopkins' desires, he said, then the absence of discounts in the last two weeks of the quarter might have had an impact on revenue and earnings that would cause Lucent to miss expectations. But he added that "it might be that the actual earnings impact is not (in) this quarter." Instead, the earnings impact from the new processes might come later this year. Expectations might be detailed in the conference call following the release of the June quarter's results, he said In this DJN article he sites an interesting point: LU is going away from discounting and aggressively financing its customers purchases near the end of the quarter. This is the first time I've heard of this although I've been out of the stock for some time. Could this put the kind of damper on LU's revs that Buck thinks it will? Clay

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (15306)	7/6/2000 6:08:36 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Respond to of 21876

Article on Optical networks and ATM: "HFC has long been considered the lowest-cost solution to bringing fiber capacity close to home; however, in the last year or so, several fiber-to-the-home initiatives have been initiated, including the full-service access network consortium of Bell Canada (BC), BellSouth (BLS), GTE (GTE), SBC (SBC), NTT (NTT) and Telstra (TLS). These full-service access network members, with about 310 million lines (roughly 45 percent of all lines), have agreed on a passive, optical network design that uses the Asynchronous Transfer Mode. Similarly, SBC Communications recently announced plans to spend more than $6 billion to build out its broadband infrastructure. SBC's Project Pronto includes 12,000 miles of new fiber in metropolitan areas to support high-speed DSL service." upside.com ( click : next steps at the bottom of the each page to move to the next page) Raj Srikanth is a managing director and Alex Barros is an associate analyst in equity research with Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York.

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (15306)	7/6/2000 6:27:58 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Respond to of 21876

Mr. Funit looks like LU will be able to deliver optical revs of $7B or more for 2000 - a 70% growth rate. What is your take on Alcatel optical business. They also will hit 7 billion this year and have many large contracts( look for at least two heavy weigh in US in second half of this year). During SuperCom they announced number of large contracts including Level 3 Comm. Bell Canada, Global Photon,VPS Comm) They own over 40% of optical submarine market, which is growing fast - over 8 billion this year. You said recently that Tyco serves Global Crossing submarine. Well, you forgot about over 600 million $ deal GC/ALA last fall:http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=13971219 I think that real fight in optics is between NT, LU and ALA. Somthing you always forget. Looks at the growth of ALA optics and projection for the rest of 2000 and beyond. Regards Zbyslaw

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (15306)	7/7/2000 11:08:24 AM
From: TTOSBT	Respond to of 21876

*Re: "What's not to like?* "** Mr. FUN or anyone. How does higher interest rates factor into LU's earnings if at all? Thanks, TTOSBT

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (15306)	7/7/2000 5:52:34 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Respond to of 21876

Mr. Fun, you said: With orders in hand from NTT, BT, Telefonica, DT, TelecomItalia, KPN, Telia, Beijing Telecom Authority, China Unicom, Global Crossing and AT&T, LU will get as much of the remaining business as it can serve. Where are the North American carriers? The only North American carrier is AT&T. Does this mean NT now totally dominates optical transmission in North America except for AT&T?

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (15306)	7/8/2000 9:44:54 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 21876

Great summary of the growth numbers and business. Where can I find these numbers to verify them? I am trying to place a valuation on the high growth part of Lu... Which parts do you think they will spin off and which will they keep? thanks Kirk out

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (15306)	7/19/2000 1:41:39 PM
From: Diamond Jim	Respond to of 21876

Mr. Fun, I notice your last two posts on LU suggest taking a look at Nokia, and now you have a very pro Nokia post on the Nokia thread. I am overweighted in Nokia so I love seeing these posts and especially right now. I think after a while one begins to have doubts with all the QCOM fanatics bombarding the Nokia thread, telling us why we must pay and at that pay even higher fees if we wait longer. thanks, jim

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (15306)	7/19/2000 3:20:22 PM
From: DiB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

Mr.Fun, thanks a lot for your contribution on LU and NOK. Regarding LU: what is your opinion on the LU-AWE contract? biz.yahoo.com It seems to me that 250 mln is kinda low for "high-speed voice and data infrastructure" that is supposed to support "15 million subscribers within two years". The release says "As primary data networking supplier for the fixed wireless network..." Are there other vendors? Also, what's your take on Spring Tide box that LU chose to use for subscriber management, IP services, and accounting, provisioning and management services? Thanks.