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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (10873)	7/6/2000 11:14:22 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78507

You know you bought a stock right when it goes up 23% in one day on what looks like bad news. Abercrombie & Fitch reported a June same-store-sales decline of 4% today and the stock jumped 2 3/4 to 14 3/8. I bought a good deal of stock at 11 a month or so ago on the way down. Actually bought a few more shares today at 13 1/2 - I rarely average up, but this one is special. I think you're looking at a $35 stock trading at 14. This company's financials are just incredible. Very favorable cash flow dynamics. You don't find too many companies with a 20%+ growth rate that throw off free cash flow. And 99.9% of those trade at above 10x earnings. I don't think there is a single analyst with a buy on the stock - they've got to be sweating today - and it is still trading below 10x earnings, even after a 75% move off the bottom in the last couple weeks. The stock is still a screaming buy in my book, though not without some risk. I'm kicking myself for not adding at 8-9, though looking at the chart (this was a $50 stock a year ago) I'm pretty happy with an average cost below 12.

To: jeffbas who wrote (10873)	7/7/2000 12:19:07 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78507

Jeff Bash: Imo, it's very good analyses that you've continued to do with SEMI. And I admire your courage to buy and to have held a large position in it. (I recall you've said you run a concentrated portfolio.) I believe I'm better able to talk about SEMI from an intuitive/paradoxical standpoint rather than from a rational one. I have upped the number of shares I have just a little more today. For no good reason. SEMI just looked like it should have been trading higher than the price I saw it at this am., given their good news announcement. So I bought a little more. I intend to try to hold all shares. At least until next quarter's earnings I defer to your judgment and analytical skills regarding the possible earnings gains SEMI could sustain. To me, SEMI's basically a distributor - although a distributor of parts that people believe may be in short supply. I do not know what sustainable earnings might be, but the business clearly has improved and this is reflected in its increased value (the increasing stock price). I do not like stepping up to pay more for the stock (but I did nonetheless) when I could have paid less any week in the last 12 months. I can't now offer up SEMI as a potential value stock for review, nor would I recommend it for anyone on this thread who's already passed on the stock for reasons of their own (too small a company, unattractive business, etc.) OTOH, some people here who are quick, flexible in their opinions and able to take advantage of changing situations, might see what you see -- "$25-30 on the stock" - and such people might very well see SEMI as an attractive risk/reward bet now (@20). Paul, who does not know, but is holding on, and who... has been wrong many, many times ---jeez even on SEMI