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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: semi_infinite who wrote (35639)	7/6/2000 9:25:02 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

BK must be asleep at the switch; or maybe he took 2 minutes off! :^) +++++++++++ semibiznews.com Dataquest hikes fab gear forecast to nearly 70% growth in 2000 By J. Robert Lineback Semiconductor Business News (07/06/00, 05:53:35 PM EDT) SAN JOSE -- The rush to add semiconductor production capacity this year has caused Dataquest Inc. here to raise its forecast for wafer fab equipment revenues to $30.3 billion in 2000, an increase of 69% from $18 billion in 1999. Dataquest also lowered its growth forecast for 2001 to 29%, but wafer fab equipment revenues are still expected to exceed previous estimates at $39 billion next year. "We believe we will exit this year still needing new capacity and a lot of projects still being set up," said Klaus Rinnen, chief analyst tracking semiconductor equipment at Dataquest. But by 2002, the growth in wafer fab equipment shipments will ease to just 9%, pushing sales to $42.5 billion, according to the new Dataquest forecast. Chip equipment sales will then drop 10-to-11% in 2003, followed by a flat year in 2004 before growth returns at 20% in 2005, Rinnen said. "In the second half of 2004, we will see some movement to fill up the [empty fab] shells," he said, referring to a number of projects being announced in the next couple of years but not fully equipped due to a slowdown in the 2002-2003 timeframe. Dataquest, like other research firms, has pulled in its forecast for the next industry slump because of the flurry of fab announcements and capital spending in recent months (see today's story about concerns of the industry overheating). Dataquest started this year forecasting a 43.5% increase in wafer equipment purchases in 2000, but like most research firms, it has increased those estimates. Total semiconductor capital spending--for equipment and facilities in all phases of chip production--is now expected to reach $58 billion in 2000, a 68% increase from $34.6 billion in 1999, according to the new Dataquest forecast. "Throughout this year -- especially the second quarter -- there was a large number of new fab announcements," noted Rinnen, prior to today's teleconference to release Dataquest's new forecast. "Initially, the industry was just filling up the shells, expanding and upgrading facilities, but in the last quarter new fab announcements were moved up and announced earlier than planned." At the start of 2000, Dataquest had logged 16 new planned fab projects for this year and 14 for 2001. By April, the count had grown to 19 in 2000 and 16 in 2001. But now the tally is at 24 new fab projects for 2000 and 30 for 2001, Rinnen said. "When we headed into this year, we were expecting to see a slew of new announcements and investments as companies gained confidence in the semiconductor markets, but we were thinking there would be 27 [fab projects] for 2001. We already have 30, but I don't think we'll see more because the supply line is really strained," added Rinnen, referring to the difficulty equipment suppliers are facing keeping up with incoming orders.