SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Nancy who wrote (27250)7/7/2000 4:39:51 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 68182
 
Nancy,

I still have the core position on MRVC. It is very volatile due to the lack of understanding of the company's strategy. lack of management guidance, and the poor analysts coverage. Most of the analyst sound like they do not understand the company. The management is Israeli so there are some cultural issues too.

I agree MRVC could fall to the upper 40's. If they finally get the IPO done and the market is more stable it will reverse quickly. It is one of those stocks that you are afraid to be in and even more afraid to be out.

Block buying has currently dried up.



To: Nancy who wrote (27250)7/10/2000 8:40:08 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 68182
 
Nancy,

FWIW, Reverse head and shoulders pattern in MRVC. I personally think this is stretching the point a little on this formation, but since I am in this stock I am rooting for it. It is one of reasons I don't pay too much attention to formations as opposed to the statistically based indicators.

hardrightedge.com



To: Nancy who wrote (27250)7/10/2000 8:55:35 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 68182
 
Surprisingly briefing is thinking the same thing. The coverage should get it going again.

Bought some JDSU to play the bounce.

*************************

"[BRIEFING.COM - Robert J. Reid] -- The seemingly endless demand for increased bandwidth has sent the shares of fiber-optic companies shy-high recently. Investors have rewarded the likes of SDL Inc. (SDLI 295 5/16) and Corning Inc. (GLW 256 11/16) with market caps of $22.6 billion and $71.3 billion, respectively. If you missed out on the recent run-up, consider MRV Communications (MRVC 61 15/16). MRV is an incubator with a portfolio of companies focusing on: (i) optical networking and Internet infrastructure products and (ii) fiber optic components for the transmission of voice, video and data. MRV is a combination of an operations company and a parent company that incubates smaller companies.

Trading Points

MRV is focused only on optical, a market with booming demand as fiber optic cable can generally carry more information at less expense and with greater signal quality than copper wire. According to market research firm RHK, network bandwidth will have to increase by more than 2000% between 1998 and 2002 to satisfy expected Internet and data traffic requirements. Unlike VerticalNet (VERT 38 1/4) or Internet Capital Group (ICGE 31 7/16), which are targeted to broader e-commerce opportunities, MRV's focus is strictly optical-networking companies.
MRV is expected to soon announce the IPO of its Luminent division, which makes singlemode fiber-optic components for the data communications, telecom, CATV, PCS/cellular and fiber-optic test equipment marketplaces. The Luminent story has investors excited because it already has an established foothold with approximately $100 million in revenue with booming demand for optical components. Investors are further excited because if all goes well with this IPO, expect to see quite a few more in the next year or two.
While it would be difficult to argue that a stock trading in the low 60s on expected earnings this year of only $0.17 is cheap, with a price-to-sales ratio of 12.5x it compares favorably to SDLI which trades at over 100x and JDS Uniphase (116 3/16) which trades at over 90x. While MRV would never demand the multiples of these leading companies, it still trading at the bottom of even the secondary fiber-optic plays. A couple of examples are Stratos Lightwave (STLW 31 15/16) and Precision Optics (POCI 17 3/4) which are trading at 27.9x and 62.6x, respectively.
MRV has a wonderful portfolio of companies, many of which are 100%-owned, with a foothold in each of the crucial networks: carrier backbone, optical transport, and access. The recent acquisition of FOCI has enabled MRV to get a foothold in both the active and passive component arenas which is important because network build-outs will continue to incorporate both concepts for the next few years. Another exciting MRV investment is Charlotte's Web, which has developed a terabit router putting it into the Juniper Networks (JNPR 147 5/16) space. A terabit router has huge capacity with tiny size, but the twist is that MRV's has a TDM-like capability allowing Charlotte's Web product and Cisco products to work well together. Zuma Networks is a gig Ethernet type play. MRV recently acquired Creative Electronic Systems which is developing next-generation service provisioning platforms and is on an IPO fast track (now called iTouch Communications).
Currently, only two analysts cover the stock (both buys). We expect additional sell-side coverage on the stock especially if the company spins-off the Luminent division as investment banks will promise to cover the stock for a piece of the IPO underwriting. The additional coverage will provide a lot more exposure for the company. For example, MRVC is a top holding for a soon-to-be created fund.
MRV is a speculative play and may not be right for all investors, but with a strict focus in a booming sector, it is an intriguing play. "