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To: TobagoJack who wrote (5358)	7/6/2000 9:25:48 PM
From: b_spiral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

I had to take a second look!!!! There must be something wrong 9984 is up and 5801 Furukawa is really up today!!! Anritsu 6754 and Ando 6847 the tester equipment companies are also doing well although I do not have a position. In June I noted that I should check them - but didn't get around to last week - the day I went to buy Anritsu - Solomon put out a price target of 4000YEN no sellers that day - been waiting for the drop. Ohh well. I wrote something last week to you about CNC - (couldn't get SI to work) - congratulations!! And, why didn't you tell anybody? <g> Gary

To: TobagoJack who wrote (5358)	7/6/2000 10:26:48 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

Every day you can read on SI the opinions of one Fleckenstein who operates a fund that sells short. He is always extremely bearish. Whenever the market goes up he gnashes his teeth because he and his customers are losing money. He also stresses 1. Oil Price inflation and 2. The U.S. trade deficit. Neither of these are catastrophic. 1. In the 1970's the oil producing nations tried jacking up the price as high as possible. There was a tremendous reaction. People bought lighter cars. There was a big switch by the utilities out of oil to natural gas or coal. There was similarly a big move of home heating out of oil to natural gas which is not so expensive as oil. Nations like France(100%), Japan(40%), Canada(30%) adopted nuclear power. Waterpower resources were exploited more than before. In the distance was for the oil producers some worrying research on utilization of tides, solar energy, thermal gap between the surface water of tropical seas and the deep water, etc. There was a general move to get away from oil. As a result, oil prices sank to an inflation adjusted new low, i.e. about ten dollars a barrel. This time around Saudi Arabia is too smart for that. They want to keep the oil importers as customers so they are going to put a lid on prices. Moreover, before, the economy moved heavy things so transportation costs, i.e. oil prices were very influential in the scheme of things. We used to judge the pace of the economy by freight car loadings per week! The price of oil is still important but the extent of its role has been calculated at less than 40% of what prevailed in 1973. Now we are in the soft economy. We send entertainment, software etc. electronically. Heavy things don't matter as much. We are moving to a low energy economy. 2. The U.S. deficit. The U.S. buys Japanese cars. The Japanese buy little from the U.S. Instead they buy oil from the Middle East. The middle eastern countries buy various things from the U.S. but not sufficent to make up the deficit caused by the purchase of Japanese cars, etc. Much of the difference is pocketed by Saudi Arabia which we know invests in the U.S. stock market. These investments are not counted in the balance of payments. Above all we must remember that the U.S. balance of payments are the problem, if there is a problem, of the countries such as Japan which are piling up U.S. dollar bonds. If the Japanese government decides to switch some of its dollars to euros then the excess U.S. dollars become the problem of some European, who will find something to do with them. He can simply save the Eurodollars and get interest or lend them out to European countries. The U.S. economy is rather efficient and as long as the inflation in the U.S. is not very different from that in European countries there is no prospect of the Euro getting vastly more popular than the dollar. The U.S. is piling up intellectual know how; other countries are piling up dollars. Here in Canada the government is from time to time annoyed that so much money is going south to invest in U.S. stocks. It affects the balance of payments! In the longest run that's good for Canada. Buffett has a point, i.e. the % of the GNP which is taken by corporate profits is at a record high. Therefore at some point these profits will stop growing so rapidly in order to return to the mean. I submit that this does not apply to rapidly growing companies. So far as I have my finger on the pulse here in North America, it seems to me that outsourcing, venture investments, etc. are an unstoppable trend. Big corporations simply can't see every opportunity; the technology is moving faster and faster. The specialist smaller companies may very well have a higher return on capital than the behemoths that are their customers(outsourcing) or shareholders(venture capital). Jay I think the fast growing stocks are better than gold. 9984 at yesterday's price was getting close to exactly the underlying value of the listed stocks, such as Yahoo, Yahoo Japan, etc.