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To: DJBEINO who wrote (51576)	7/7/2000 10:48:12 AM
From: TREND1	Respond to of 53903

Message from hal1(mu trender) see and join new yahoo Hal club clubs.yahoo.com Larry Dudash

To: DJBEINO who wrote (51576)	7/8/2000 11:58:09 AM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Important for MU Posted on new Hal yahoo club Starting discussion of SSB Report. There are 5 basic parts. This is about the First part only. It is the most important part. I have put a copy of the chart on my web site Here are the main points below: (1)Peak years in capital spending closely correlate with peak years in semiconductor growth. (2) Semiconductor cycles are defined by excess capacity rather than by a fall-off in demand. (3)Peak years in capital spending have correlated closely with 1984 (64% growth of capital spending), 1988 (53%), 1995 (71%), and a short peak in 1997 (32%). (4) Year 2000 started with a forecast of 35% capital spending growth, which was revised upward to the point that we are now anticipating 60% capital spending growth. (5) Current forecast is 35% capex(capital expenditures) growth for next year. (6) Therefore this year is the peak. clubs.yahoo.com Larry Dudash