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Technology Stocks : BMC Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (1237)	7/8/2000 1:12:35 AM
From: john dodson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1492

Here's something for discusssion. I remember some months back (about early March, 2000 I think) there were some rumors about IBM possibly buying BMC. Obviously, BMC was trading much higher than current levels in the low $20's--something along the order of $50-$60. Any way, if there was any truth to that "rumor", then it begs the question of whether big blue would be even more interested now. Kinda reminds me of the Lotus deal several years back. Lotus traded in the $60's and even higher. Then it tanked rather severely to about half that to the low $30's. IBM scooped them up pretty quickly after that for about $65 per, if memory serves. My point, or rather my semi-rambling thinking-outloud, is that I think BMCS has to be pretty attractive to IBM at current levels. Pro's: +BMCS product line would largely complement Tivoli's (owned by IBM) +Buying BMCS would eliminate Tivoli's biggest competitor (buy the competition--something big companies love to do) +BMCS is obviously on the cheap right now +There were some pretty serious rumors floating around 4 months ago predicting this very thing Con's: -Does IBM's potentially changing direction with mainframe pricing/products damage/diminish BMC's position in that space so much that it renders BMC unattractive to a potential suitor? -Does BMCS want to sell on the cheap now or at all? Maybe mad Max want's to remain captain of the Exxon BMC-ese. =-} Note: I have traded BMCS before rather profitably. I have been buying this recent dip ($24 down to $21 1/2). I think this is incredibly cheap for a company like BMCS. Does that mean that it won't/can't go lower? Course not. Comments/critique's/followup idears?