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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (8433)	7/8/2000 9:19:01 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Not only weak, but all well below the year's high. If the cycle in shipments has not peaked, the cycle in stock prices surely has. That means, IMHO, that the cycle in shipments may peak within the next two to three quarters. This year's chip shipments will be close to $200 B, but the total industry Cap-ex is estimated at $55 B, as I have said before, cap-ex in excess of 20% of shipments is not sustainable in the long run. Considering the fact that we are yet to see the impact of six fed rates increases on end demand, I think that this summer rally (which I have stated a number of times is going to be a "monster rally") should be used to close position in the chip cap equip sector, and once INTC makes new highs above the $140 area (I have a run to $165 as a peak) thining chip stocks will be the order of the day, IMHO. Zeev