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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (121)	7/7/2000 6:52:58 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 10065

MGJ: Re: "If Brinker thought this move would take time going into next year why was his January partial sell call...immediate? " If one studies bear markets, there is no way to know how far and how fast the market will decline. If one took a look at the snapshot of the market with the Dow down nearly 20% and the S & P 500 close to 10% this year, things were looking like a bear market and we have since rallied by virtue of the Naz only. Brinker does not have a crystal ball on how things will exactly pan out but he clearly saw the need for capital preservation. I don't think one messes around when they see that need. Otherwise, you could end up a bag holder. The fact is that a money market return has beaten the major indexes YTD with absolute minimal risk. But talking about risk is unacceptable on a forum like SI where reward is only considered.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (121)	7/7/2000 8:00:06 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 10065

MGJ, you wrote, "If Brinker thought this move would take time going into next year why was his January partial sell call...immediate?" He has always said that the typical time frame for a bear market is six months to two years. But I think he has a better handle on the time frame now than he did back in January. Correctly forecasting market weakness is hard enough without demanding a precise time-frame. In any case, when his model started indicating danger, what was he going to do, hold back the information? As for the "immediate" part, Bob has always declined to adopt e-mail notification of recommendations, and I believe that part of the reason is that market tops and bottoms are impossible to forecast precisely. When you're talking about a major change in market direction, it's seldom necessary to rush out and take action "immediately".