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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (27485)	7/8/2000 10:57:47 AM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

LindyBill: We differ on approach, that is all. You will play your hand, I will play mine. We'll see. With regard to "Since we pretty well all agree that there is no significant upside to Q in the next six months, why take the chance on the possible enormous downside?" count me as one who does not agree on either of the points in that statement. I expect a major upside move, I see roughly zero risk of a major downside move. Don't know the timing, but my stake is with upside. The fall (much less than six months) is my guess. But I want to be in now, to be on the safe side. And I think betting on the gorilla makes sense - and that means holding. Best. Cha2 ..

To: LindyBill who wrote (27485)	7/8/2000 11:05:10 AM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

LindyBill: Among the reasons why I want to be in is Dr J, viz: To: Ramsey Su who started this subject From: Benjamin Garrett Saturday, Jul 8, 2000 10:41 AM ET Reply # of 481 (((The Korean companies plan to take advantage of what's called roaming, the ability to use the same handset on other networks in other countries. The Korean service providers for the first time will be able to collect charges for this kind of service. Jacobs said that future phones will be able to roam between CDMA standards and that the Internet eventually will make such distinctions less important. ``The main network in the future will be the Internet, and that doesn't favor any network,'' Jacobs said. ``The roaming issue will largely be in the past even before widespread use'' of the next generation of mobile phones begins.))) ----------------------------------------------------------- Let's take account ----> Keep your eye on NTT's May 2001 rollout of "wCDMA". There have been statements attribuited to ERICY that CDMA 2000 or wCDMA are both upgrade paths FROM CDMA 1x. Look for NTT's buildout to begin with CDMA 1x, installed by LU and ERICY - both with 3G licenses in place. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY FOR NTT TO MEET ITS SCHEDULE - considering wCDMA stage of development and IPR litigation issues. They MUST have comparable bandwidth for I-Mode (read value-added services) to compete with DDI's 1x and new content plans. SK Telecom states that their planned wCDMA system (NTT's flavor) will be compatible with their existing CDMA system. (The Asia/Euro axis may be splitting on this point, as the Euro flavor is intentionally incompatible.) CHINA WILL HAVE NO REASON TO WAIT TO ROLL OUT CDMA 1X if they can decide on flavor later. Recent China news releases reflect urgency to begin ASAP. Korean telecoms'statements favoring wCDMA are both logical and meaningless at this point. Present spectrum IS ALL THEY NEED for domestic services - this is even more true as they upgrade to 1x and 2000. New spectrum is for entry into foreign markets, where foreign standard makes sense. THIS EQUATION IS BASED ON THE NEED TO ROAM - REFER TO IJ'S STATEMENTS ABOVE. H&Q's Snyder will be wrong concerning DDI backing away from upgrading to 1x. (They could always say they plan to move to wCDMA like NTT or Korea telecoms - as they upgrade to 1x, but this would be meaningless as well.) Lastly - wCDMA doesn't yet exist. Repeat this over and over and over. It's a guess as to when it will. Again, watch NTT. ----------------------------------------------------------- ``The main network in the future will be the Internet, and that doesn't favor any network,'' IJ is perceiving the entire Equation at a different scale, with ramifications perhaps similar to the Internet's effect on MSFT Windows. I would love hear IJ elaborate. regards, blg

To: LindyBill who wrote (27485)	7/8/2000 11:22:01 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>> Since we pretty well all agree that there is no significant upside to Q in the next six months, why take the chance on the possible enormous downside? Let me field that, Dancelot. First, consider that there are very few of us whose portfolios are primarily tax sheltered, so let's look at your premise in a taxable environment. My first buy of Q, which was at 140 on 4/5/99 (since I wasn't as fast on my feet as you were <gg>). That split adjusts to 17.50. With Q trading at 56.625, I'd have to pay taxes on 39.125, which, assuming a 40% combined fed and state rate, would be 15.65. I'd have to buy Qcom back at 40.975 just to break even and in the mid 30s for it to make any significant profit from the exercise. The key here is that I want to be invested in qcom, not because I'm in love with the stock, but because I think its business plan is a winner and that it is a brilliant long term investment. In fact, it is currently a value stock as well as a high growth tech stock, which is a combination I haven't encountered since April of last year! Finally, I don't buy the premise that Q is dead for at least 6 months. All it will take is one announcement, be it blow out earnings, a Nokia deal, a major country commitment, or an acquisition offer (possible at these levels) for it to go through the roof, and even you will be too slow to catch it. Take rmbs as an example of how quick Mr. Market can change his mind; were you able to profit from it? Buffett advised the perfect time to buy a stock was when it was totally out of favor. Can you think of a better example than the Q? uf

To: LindyBill who wrote (27485)	7/8/2000 11:29:08 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Since we pretty well all agree that there is no significant upside to Q in the next six months ... That's an interesting perspective. Just a week or two ago a number of people explained all the reasons a new agreement with Nokia could happen in as little as a few weeks and in no more than a few months. For the record, I don't hold the opinion that there is no significant upside potential to Q in the next six months. I think there is huge potential depending on the news that does or doesn't come forth. --Mike Buckley

To: LindyBill who wrote (27485)	7/9/2000 5:06:36 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

re: QCOM bottom: 1. I listened to the CEO interview today, and it sounds great. But it bothers me a lot, that I can not find anyone else (other than QCOM shareholders or management) who is confirming what he said in the interview. Specifically, no one else is saying that QCOM's IP content (and hence future royalties) is the same for all CDMA variants. The overwhelming consensus of the analysts and business press, is that the shift to a WCDMA standard means significantly less future profits for QCOM. 2. you said, "why take the chance on the possible enormous downside?" With the stock at 200, or 100, I would agree. But, with the stock now 146 points off its high, how much more downside is there? At this price, what possible bad news could push it down more? How much worse can sentiment get? A slowdown in Korea chipset sales, the abandonment of CDMA2000, future 3% WCDMA royalties (instead of 5% CDMA2000 royalties), delay in China CDMA adoption: it's all on the front page of the WSJ, and it's in the stock. 3. Do you have a buy-back strategy? A price you'd buy at, or a time period you think it will bottom during, or some specific news you want to hear before you buy? Or will nothing induce you to buy anytime soon? 4. My buy-in strategy is to start following the chart, and the market's mood, very closely, once the stock gets into my valuation range. QCOM is now there. 60 looked like support for a while, and I bought there, but then it failed. I couldn't find any reason for support to fail, but I took the opportunity to sidle to the sidelines at 61. Now I'm waiting for the stock to stop going down on bad news, to bounce a few times on volume at some level. I could easily be wrong, but I think the bottom will be in the next 2-3 weeks. Then, it will climb, in a volatile sawtooth pattern.