Great RealMoney Chat with Cramer....CSCO, BRCD,AHAA, QCOM, EMC, SUNW comments are all interesting.
CSCO is still at Ground Zero
Cramer Chat: Stocks, Economics and More
By James J. Cramer
Originally posted at 10:12 PM ET 6/29/00 on RealMoney.com
James J. Cramer chatted on RealMoney.com Thursday, June 29, at 7 p.m. EDT.
James_Cramer Welcome everyone to our first Real Money Chat. I want to make this as meaningful as possible. After all it is just us subscribers now!!! A real club.
coopjean-guest says: As a trader, typically what timeframe are you looking at when you decide whether to buy? For example, right now, many would see a summer sell-off looming in August-September. Do you look that far ahead or are you mostly focused on the next 3-4 weeks?
James_Cramer Great question because this is the type of issue we kick around all day. We are right now beginning to think about what will work for the second half of the year. We are using about a six month horizon for longer term themes (drugs, versus tech versus banks) but individual stocks come and go!
turadek-guest says: When I feel the need to take money off the table, I have a hard time deciding what to sell. any hints (aside from the obvious sell)?
James_Cramer We sell if the fundamentals change or the catalyst has happened. But when we hate the market we are willing to sell almost anything because the ultimate sin is not paying taxes it is LOSING MONEY.
I don't use stops, but I do believe that it might help you to draw a line and say , lets take a stock, Intel, that you are not going to let that stock go down below $120 without selling some, because you don't want to give up a big gain. It is all very personal though.
schwazz2-guest says: Jim, you said today "there is awesome demand for products that move data aggressively and intelligently"...that being said, I'd be surprised if you were not a big fan of FFIV.
James_Cramer FFIV is okay. I much, much prefer the Nortels and the Ciscos. If you want a data play cisco is the best, by far.
brainhopper-guest says: How do you factor in Overbought/sold condition as in daily chartist into your buy/sell decisions?
James_Cramer I used to use it much more. I used to be addicted to overbought oversold and would call the oscillator every night. Now I only care if we are wildly overbought or sold because stocks swing much more now. I don't think it is much of a factor until stocks have been hammered endlessly or are parabolic in their moves up.
pondi-guest says: When you look at bonds today - was the Fed trying to tell the market to go up to counterbalance their possible overkill?
James_Cramer I don't think the Fed was telling us anything. I think there was word that housing starts were going to be very strong and people were making big bond short bets. They got their heads handed to them,. This was a short covering rally in the bonds.
cpoe98-guest says: How do you think techs will perform the rest of the year?
James_Cramer Okay, let's make this one as clear as possible. There are many, many different kinds of tech. Take today. Compaq got hit really badly and a lot of tech went down, that's stupid.
There are areas of tech where demand is INSATIABLE: data moving, telephony, and there are areas where it is so so--mostly big enterprise companies. You have to forget tech as a monolith. It is case by case.
fitzalan22-guest says: jjc - thx for the short trigger on lily - this real time deal is cool - what's your view on the fibre optic stocks - esp. STLW ?
James_Cramer Ahh, harmkening back to the last question, this area, fiber optics, is unbelievably strong. Just amazing. I like the two you mentioned. But the winner , by a mile is JDSU. That is a superbly run company with the best pure fundamentals that I follow.
j454545j-guest says: Are you watching the financials or brokers for a clue to market moves....Are they a bellweather?
James_Cramer This group always matters, Always. We ignore it at our own peril. It is telling us nothing right now though. Merrill is near its 52 week high, first union is at its 52 week low. It is sending all sorts of weird signals. I think that they aren't readable right now, like some sort of Navajo talking code, and I cant break it.
hd89flstc-guest says: Jim, Why is NOK & QCOM so out of favor?
James_Cramer Hold it!!! Qualcom got wildly overvalued because of the Gilder cult. And it is a cult. I don't care if I take flack for saying that. Nokia on the other hand, has issues that are niggling, such as whether the component shortage is going to cut off the upside.
My partner Berko says he thinks it will, but I say that is priced in at $49. We remain long Nokia. We will short Qualcom on real strength.
telestar-guest says: What is the most important technological trend you see developing in 3-5 years and how would you attempt to play it?
James_Cramer Here it will be conceptual--will the boomers adopt tech the way that the previous generation adopted drugs and food stocks--and political, whether Bush wins or not.
Bush wants people owning stocks. Gore has been kind of disappointing on this whole front. I am a big giver to the Democratic party, I have never hid that, and I asked Gore to sit for an interview about the market. What would he have to lose? And his people blew me off. Very strange.
I am convinced he would not be as bad for the market as people say, but it was disconcerting that he would not let me interview him for TSC. I bet Bush would. Hmmm, maybe I will call him!!!
rivi-guest says: Broadcom is taking off just like Yahoo when it was added to the S&P. Is it going to cool off like Yahoo, too?
James_Cramer This is such a good question. In fact all of these are good. Serious people in Real Money! Let me say that Broadcom does seem like an enticing short after tomorrow but it is too good a company for me to put out. I won't short great companies on valuation purposes unless I have something else in my pocket. And I sure don't with Broadcom. It is a great company.
yinong-guest says: Global Crossing has been under pressure recently. Do you think it's a take-over target?
James_Cramer Here is an embarrassing admission, I said the same thing today in my office. But we don't spec on takeover targets if the fundamentals are not intact and you have to admit that the pricing of long distance has caused a lot of pain. I would rather be in qwest or sprint than Global.
bleavittii-guest says: Jim, what are your thoughts on two retailers -- Costco and Home Depot?
James_Cramer I think that these are companies that in the next few months you will want to begin to start buying, but not until they report earnings because I don't think people will like those numbers. It is worrisome to own retail now. In fact, on a trading basis I would be short both.
tanman7476-guest says: If net companies are failing left and right, then who will csco and sunw sell their products to?
James_Cramer Tanman, lets look at it this way, these companies have much, much more business than they can handle. Everybody thinks they are leveraged to dotcoms. They are really leveraged to the net, which is growing massively.
Don't fall into that trap of thinking that these two companies will do poorly if amazon does poorly. That's a loser. You will not make money that way. If you feel you have to play that thesis go after web consulting or advertising plays.
westfield-guest says: Jim, what do think about the AHP takeover rumors today?
James_Cramer I think that I would have a great July if they came true! Seriously, it remains a big position of ours and unlike most takeout candidates this one has improving funies. Reminds me of Warner Lambert last year.
eaoeaoeao-guest says: What was the real action in COBT today besides the upgrade from WR Hambrecht?
James_Cramer Thats a good company. Some of these newer companies have had their butts kicked but are doing quite well. Goldman Sachs bought that one and it is a good deal.
bobcarss-guest says: You mentioned yesterday your education on Storage Area Networks. Any companies you like specifically? Did you visit JNIC?
James_Cramer I have two favorites in this group: Brocade and Veritas,. Both are excellent. We visited Brocade and had breakfast with Greg Reyes, the ceo. I have to tell you that i think this is the next cisco.
czyryca1918-guest says: When do you buy the regional banks Jim. The tightening is almost over...doesn't that mean now's the time to jump into banks?
James_Cramer I think we are very close. If you overlay 1994 you have to jump in about two-three months. There aren't that many pure regional banks left but that's when I would buy them.
phandler-guest says: JJC - I am long in AHAA, it took a big hit this week due Leaving Russel 2000 into Russel 1000 + expansion announcement, what is your take on this company?
James_Cramer I don't know, seems like an interesting speculation but I am not there on it.
michaelg531-guest says: What do you think of the generic drug plays?
James_Cramer I think these are simply AWFUL and I hope you avoid them like the plague.
gandalfgrey101-guest says: Is your loss cut-off different for longer-term themes versus day-to-day trades?
James_Cramer No, we are very strict about our losses here. It is our hallmark. There are tremendous recriminations when we let things ride down. We have a tremendous incentive not to lose money and we do anything we can not to have it happen.
philipw100-guest says: Hi Jim...your point of view on Metricom and it's Ricochet service now beginning its rollout. I'm excited about the possibilities...am I wrong? Thanks.
James_Cramer No I don't think you are wrong but you have to recognize that Metricom is very speculative and this is not the time for real speculative plays like that. I continue to believe that you can play that whole revolution through csco and make out much better.
ovinces-guest says: I keep reading that there is a lot of money on the sidelines, waiting to be put to work. If so, do you forsee it will be in the near term?
James_Cramer I don't think so. I think that money is sidelined for a reason. I think the market has gotten very tough and people want to wait until they are sure that we are out of the woods with inflation and the fed. Of course I would also argue that by the time that money comes in you probably want to be out!! (LOL)
linjack6126-guest says: Hi, Jim, with all the fiber plays, how about AVNX, since the management came form ETEK and JDSU?
James_Cramer No doubt about it that is one of our faves. Matt "optical" jacobs loves those guys. But you have to understand the way we work at Cramer Berkowitz. We don't like to have too many "plays" of one kind. We tend not to have JDSU and SDLI and GLW. We just pick best of breed and best of breed is JDSU.
dcraze-guest says: At what price would you buy QCOM and will they do a deal with NOK? I think NOK will license QCOM's chipsets at some point in the near future. A positive for both. Comment?
James_Cramer I don't care for Qualcom, I think that I would sell the stock on that news if it happens. It is too loved. And we are now on the dark side of the moon for that stock. That's okay. A lot of the newer to the market people don't understand that some stocks are more faddish than others and qualcom is one of them.
jctorres-guest says: Thx for starting this chat later. It is easier for some of us in the Bay Area to tune in. Are you at all concerned/interested in the Mexican elections on Sunday? (especially since we are in a '94 like mkt)
James_Cramer Not as much as I would be on another occasion because these guys are real capitalists and the peso will be stable.
dougthom-guest says: Jim do you often use hedging techniques such as long stock long puts or are you usually just straight long or short? How about the street in general. Do most professionals hedge their positions?
iBelieve-guest says: Jim, does the Trading Goddess believe in a summer rally?
James_Cramer Great questions. We are frequently hedged. Especially in a choppy market like this. As far as the summer rally, the Trading Goddess has been bullish since May. She keeps urging me to find some dotcoms to love, but I keep telling her I have one and that is enough.
euro0-guest says: Today there were new figures. One lagging indicator considered positive (unemployment) and one negative BBP, but merely looking at the past. What does this mean when you also consider a strong earnings season ahead?
James_Cramer I don't see a strong earnings season. I think it is going to be not so hot except for some portions of tech, I do think that when the NASDAQ Comp goes above 4000 again we will have a wave of opitmisim that will be self-defeating because the Fed doesn't want the speculation to come back. The fed hates speculation whether it is in land, homes or stocks.
hatbox-guest says: In your DSL stuff you described the huge problems with it. Why not play the cable side and what would you recommend in that area?
James_Cramer First, I know that cable is liked. But cable is not rolling out now as fast as DSL. But I will emphasize that there is only one winner no matter which triumphs and that is Cisco.
I spent two days at Cisco this week and I can tell you in no uncertain terms that they win with cable, with cell, with fixed wireless and with dsl. They win big. Ever since SBC agreed to use them.
jaydubster-guest says: Jim, can you make money just playing the overreactions in the market, like rambus running to 140 (AH), or mstr going to 69 a couple weeks ago?
James_Cramer I think a pro can. I think that you have to be there at the extreme moment and it is hard to do that from home. But I do it all day.
rphilipp-guest says: Jim when in the commentary you say we're picking up some LSI or CSCO, how long do you keep them or are they for day trade?
James_Cramer We buy strength and we sell weakness. That is our stock in trade. We constantly trade around our core positions. So we might have 50,000 LSI. It gets hit for four points. We think it is unjustified. We pick up 25,000. When it goes back up three or four we sell that stock and we keep the core, We buy down on a scale and sell up on a scale but we don't sell the core.
quitam-guest says: What Co's impressed you the most from your California trip?
James_Cramer CSCO and BRCD.
jlk3-guest says: NMK, Niagara Mohawk Holdings is selling its nuclear power plants, will it be good for the stock?
James_Cramer Not in our lifetimes. Hold it, that might be too indefinite. Not as long as there is intelligent life on earth unless the company sells out and then you still wont make much money.
m333J says: Jim, you talked today about some stocks being "thrashed, trashed and smashed." The 3 stocks you mentioned are up 100, 300 and 500% over the last 52 weeks. How high and fast do you expect this market to go?
James_Cramer I really don't care where stocks have been if the fundamentals are good. That is a meaningless construct. I suspect that stocks mark time here. I think the environment is okay. Not great, not bad.
I would not be surprised if nothing happens for a while. But there will be individual homeruns. There always are. I am neither bullish nor bearish. I was very bearish in the spring. No longer.
stujohns-guest says: With the govt. retiring all this debt, what will take its place as the world's investment vehicle?
James_Cramer I think there are still lots of alternative investments to treasuries. I wouldn't worry.
justinqueree-guest says: When do you decide to buy beaten up sectors like cyclicals or financials? Do you wait for a noticeable catalyst or do you try to anticipate it?
James_Cramer I try to anticipate it but I am cognizant that when the Fed is trying to engineer a soft landing you have to be very careful. It is still too early for cyclicals and financials. The 1994 road map has worked almost perfectly so far this year and it says NOT YET!!!
subodh-guest says: Do you think BLS is giving correct data, why are there so many BIG revisions to their data?
James_Cramer Great question and it is a little unnerving. I don't have answers. I try to put together my own pastiche too. I find that retail sales don't lie.
cpoe98-guest says: What % of investable cash would you put to work in the stock market right here if you were a long term investor (10 yr horizon)?
James_Cramer There types of questions, charlie, are very hard because I don't know you. I think a lot of the joker guys who do what I do would actually give you some sort of percentage.
I can't go there because it is a personal game. I try very hard to use my column and my writings to teach about knowing yourself what is right. I will not always be there for you. Only you will be there for you. I had a very upsetting letter today from a reader canceling his sub. He said I wasn't telling him what to do.
What was the point of paying $200 if I didn't tell him what to do. What I was doing. Heck, that's not the point. I want you to figure it out. I want to help you level the playing field. But I sure as heck don't want you to imitate me. That would be like driving a stock car on the FDR.
michaelg531-guest says: Do you think SUNW ever really challenges EMC with there move into data storage?
James_Cramer I think there is plenty of room for both. I am long both. These are great companies.
choosyg1-guest says: I like these later, private RealMoney chats! Good luck with the site. Are all internet stocks to be avoided now or are some really good buys?
James_Cramer Lets see the quarters. This was a tough quarter for a lot of net stocks, it might really show us. We don't have to jump first. These aren't running away. As far as the chats go, I want to experiment with different times.
I have always felt my Yahoo and AOL chat times were too constricting. I want new and different people. I want to reach people who can't be there at 5:00 p.m. eastern time.. although I will do some of those too.
brainhopper-guest says: Impression on Semiconductor earnings this quarter?
James_Cramer I think they will be very, very strong,. I am not concerned.
biswick-guest says: I noticed RealMoney is using TCTY's software for this chat. Any thoughts on the stock? (no position)
James_Cramer I like the chat so far, but that is not the kind of research that can make you money.
mjblow-guest says: Thoughts on the breakup of CS? Is this just financial engineering or is there value to be unlocked in moving away from the tarnished Cabletron name?
James_Cramer I keep hearing there is value. The way to play Cabletron is with Cisco. (LOL)
selwop8-guest says: Jim what is your worst trade ever?
James_Cramer Man have there been a lot of worst trades. My short of Novell was horrible. There was a bkx trade I did about six years ago that took about three years off my life.
James_Cramer I have invested in two companies that went bankrupt that were major embarrassments to me. I could go on forever. Funny, I am the only money manager that has ever had a bad trade though! Amazing how good those other guys must be.
mortgagemike-guest says: Jim do you see any bank mergers coming?...Since repeal of Glass-Stegal things have been slow on that front.
James_Cramer Tom Hanley just got fined for answering that one!! I don't know, there is still a need to consolidate in this industry but you know my mantra: don't speculate where the fundies are faltering, and they are still faltering in this group.
dalstron-guest says: Hello Jim. Greetings from Sweden. You wrote that the FED was an non event. Now everybody is talking about the august FED. Is this a non event also?
James_Cramer I am not talking about the August Fed. That's just the t.v. talking heads who do that. You know what they do it? Cause it is safe, nobody gets in trouble for saying mindless blather.
It makes me sick when they do it. The pros, Haines and Hayes--they don't do it. Don't you. Hey as I write Qualcom is laying off people. These guys are doing a crummy job of dribbling out bad news.
street_sshaw-guest says: What are your year-end targets for nasdaq, dow and s&p?
James_Cramer I don't use targets. That's broker stuff. I am a stock picker anyway but you folks will know more cause I will be writing here all of the time about this stuff.
RealMoney says: Thanks very much for sharing your insights with us today, James Cramer! Do you have any final thoughts for your audience?
James_Cramer Yeah, tune in to Chris Mathews tonight on CNBC and you will see, get this, me! Yep back on CNBC, the night version. Fun -I beat up on Amazon. Enjoy! And thanks so much for coming. We will do many more to be sure!! |
