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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (142)	7/8/2000 3:09:43 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Mrgreen (1) You state you are 40:60, so you follow bob's advice? (2) It is easy to complain. It is hard to forecast. (3) Please tell us your forecast so we can all put you on record with Bob and compare both. (4) Please refer to posting number of your forecast. Larry Dudash

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (142)	7/8/2000 7:53:22 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 10065

RE: "In July and August 428,000 census workers will be taken off the rolls decreasing employment in the public sector taking some pressure off the tight labor market." FWIW, CNBC reported that the census workers are being taken off the rolls faster this year than anticipated. Much of the census workers' impact was supposedly included in the June job numbers just released. Best wishes, I2

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (142)	7/9/2000 2:20:27 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

MGJ, you wrote: "The range Bob has given is wide. " This is true, but bear in mind that if the market performs anywhere in that range this year, it will be a huge difference from the performance of recent years. "The January call had some sense of urgency at the time it was issued. " I'm still having trouble seeing this. Is there anything objective you can point to to establish this purported urgency? It certainly doesn't seem to be in the January newsletter, which seems to be all very matter-of-fact about it. It came out on the regular issue date, too, and Bob has indicated in the past that a special issue could be sent out if needed. From what I could see at the time, most of the sense of urgency came from nervous subscribers who hadn't gotten their newsletters yet, and who didn't seem to understand how slowly market tops (if this is one) develop. Some of it also came from his critics, who couldn't be bothered to wait to see how a forecast with a six-month to two-year time frame would work out. "I also had the sense that Bob felt..." This kind of talk really makes me nervous. It's all so squishy. In the time I have been following Bob's work, I have come to believe that trying to read his mind is a grand waste of time. I've found that it's best to pay attention to what he actually says, and not get too wrapped up in what I think he's implying. "...with good profit reports in front of us..." An assumption. "I am venturing a guess that profits in high technology stocks will be effected a lot less than most think." It's nice to see that you agree with me, but I suspect you meant affected instead of effected. (grin) Having ridden through two brutal declines in the semiconductor equipment sector, I find I am loathe to believe in the mythical tech industry immunity to outside influences. "Tell me your profit estimates and..." I have very little faith in profit estimates in general. Mine would probably be worse than average.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (142)	7/9/2000 3:19:56 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 10065

MGJ: Re: "What I have not seen anyone project on this board are their decreased profit estimates for either later this year or 2001 translating into lower equity prices...Tell me your profit estimates and..." It does not matter IMO. The lesson of the past few weeks is that if you miss your numbers in any way shape or form, you will find the hammer of God. It is an instant 40 - 60% haircut. Why? Because valuations overall are near all time highs and the valuations for Nasdaq stocks are incredible. Re: "I am venturing a guess that profits in high technology stocks will be effected a lot less than most think." All it takes is a one penny miss, slightly missed revenues or a questionable outlook and that will give you a haircut of monster proportions. Thanks for sharing your views.