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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ftth who wrote (7536)7/8/2000 5:05:57 PM
From: MikeM54321  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 12823
 
dave- Speaking of cutting new service, and in a somewhat related topic, I just read via one of my hard copy magazines(?) that GTE is killing any new construction coaxial cable plant overlays they are doing right on top of Time Warner's cable plant. I believe GTE got 100,000 subs signed up for TV service. And passed something on the order of a million or two homes. Of which about 10%(of the 100,000 figure) also elected to go with cable modem service. And they are putting the overlay HFC plant up for sale! Dumping the entire project on whoever can make use of it.

So here's a clear case of an overlay plant, competing with fixed number of subs, going head-to-head for customers, and it turns out not to make economic sense. Of course GTE had to build their network 100% from scratch. So it was quite expensive. And you have to wonder, who in the heck made the decision to do a HFC plant instead of FTTH!? What a poor decision that turned out to be.

But it just makes me wonder what'll happen IF the VDSL TV model is ever really rolled out to compete, head-to-head, with the offerings of a MSO cable plant. A HFC plant that is capable of doing voice/video/data. Is there really going to be justification for a telco to spend all that money going after a fixed number of potential subs with VDSL FSAN? IMVHO, the cableco is going to win that battle and maybe this is the real reason the telcos are not bothering with fiber-twisted pair VDSL TV delivery model. Woe to SBC if my speculation turns out to be accurate.

And if the telcos start losing local phone customers to the MSOs, then it's a POWERFUL incentive for the incumbent telcos to roll out FTTH, sooner rather than later. Time will tell if ATT ends up driving the incumbents to FTTH.

All just some fun speculation. -MikeM(From Florida)