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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (119758)	7/9/2000 9:12:58 AM
From: Gopher Broke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573902

Paul, Thanks for the response. You remain emotively negative, yet your outlook is surprisingly bullish. I will be happy if the situation pans out as you predict, with AMD's overall ASP climbing to $100. I remain a little concerned that Intel is apparently producing a lot more processors over the 800 MHz mark. Duron should be able to keep a step ahead but it has Intel's marketing force to contend with -can they make celery2 sound attractive? As for the impact of the P4, I will make a judgement when I have seen a benchmark from a 1.4GHz system. The double clocked ALU seems like a neat idea, but like most neat ideas it probably has unforeseen side effects that will take time for Intel to work through. In particular, I think that there is an assumption that the P4 will bring a huge leap in performance and this is factored into AMD's current revenue projections and share price. The market might just react positively if it turns out that a P4 1.4 is only 20% faster than an Athlon 1.2 and carries a high price tag to boot.

To: Paul Engel who wrote (119758)	7/9/2000 10:52:39 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1573902

Re: My opinion is that AMD's Athlon ASP will have to... Have you factored in: First time AMD will have access to the Corporate market. First time AMD will have access to the server market. The lag in perceived value (it has taken many months to educate consumers to accept paying as much or more for an AMD CPU as an Intel CPU) Finally, have you considered that AMD and Intel ASPs will also be approaching each other? Intel ASPs in the corporate and server markets will have to fall to at least approach the new alternative. AMD had record profits with ASPs under $100, what will happen to Intel if it must forgo $75 in revenue on each of 120 million CPUs next year? Dan

To: Paul Engel who wrote (119758)	7/9/2000 1:57:34 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1573902

Paulie: Re: "Intel's Pentium 4 volume may not be large, but it will get most of the money from customers who want the best CPU available. AMD will again be left with their mantra - "best price/performance CPU",which translates to CHEAPER and CHEAPER AthWipers." Comment: Just more of the increasingly voluminous INTC party line (first Gelsinger, now Barrett) having to promise "something-if-ever-in-the-future" because thay can't compete in the "here-and-now"...These empty Intel promises we've been hearing over the past 8 months are starting to wear about as thin as the PWeeiii architecture!!! Don't you get tired of your empty promises Paulie??? Over and over and over again!!!

To: Paul Engel who wrote (119758)	7/10/2000 12:20:24 AM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573902

Paul - RE: "Another overriding concern is Intel's rapidly increasing volumes of >800 MHz CPUs. As their volumes rise, they will drop prices on existing CPUs as they then introduce ever faster (1.13 GHz) Pentium IIIs in this quarter (Q3). This will put more pressure on AMD to drop their AthWipey ASPs." Are you not expecting the Athlon to scale higher in GHz? Current available processors from Dresden are from when AMD was at about 500 wsw. Dresden is currently at 1250 wsw (from a Ruiz interview), so volume of higher parts is going to get even better as the ramp of Dresden become noticeable. Processors from Dresden and Autsin are both available at a MAX of 1GHz right now, you say? Well, if Jerry says AMD can do 1.5GHz by Q1 '01, I expect them to be able to do at least 1.1GHz this Q. Blind faith? Intel also has to ramp its new stepping. If 1.1GHz comes out in limited volumes like the 1GHz processor did, and STAYS limited, I wouldn't get too confident about Intel's pricing versus AMD.