Sorry for the head ache, take two aspirin and call me in the AM. <ggg> You should see the charts I trade off of!! I have twice as many indicators on them and multiple versions.
Yes, teh Heavy Green is the Highs minus new lows. The Heavy Red is the actual NASDAQ and the hard to see thin lines are various moving averages for cross overs etc. The top inner window is a MACD divergence ( Blue ) a slow stochastic (Dark hard to see green) a mid term stochastic ( Red). The lower inner window are various fast indicators including Chandes, stochastic, MACD. The main window also has an invisible black line that is a proprietary variation on stochastic that only shows the value in the window pane.
All you need to concentrate on though is the dots. <ggg>
If you like that , I could post my cycle analysis on the DOW/NASDAQ composite that I worked on today. It is really pretty and even more confusing.<g>
Here are some posts I just put up on our site's message board....
By L3_Aka_L3 on Sunday, July 09, 2000 - 01:41 am: Edit
Yeah, this sounds bullish -gggggg-
Friday July 7 7:41 PM ET
Tech Companies Harder To Evaluate
By CLIFF EDWARDS, AP Technology Writer
SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) - Creative accounting techniques are adding to the difficulty of evaluating the financial health of technology companies, analysts say. That isn't helping the sector, especially with second-quarter earnings reports around the corner.
A decision by Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - news) to include one-time investment gains in its upcoming results has confounded Wall Street insiders and caused investors to howl about the high-tech havoc.
Meanwhile, business software companies Computer Associates International Inc. (NYSE:CA - news) and BMC Software Inc. (NasdaqNM:BMCS - news) warned this week they will fall well short of analysts' expectations, pulling technology stocks lower. Competitor Compuware Corp. followed Friday with its own dismal outlook.
``It's becoming harder to compare apples to apples in the high-tech industry,'' said analyst Robert Johnson at ABN Amro Inc. in Chicago. ``It's just a massive problem for investors today in the technology field to compare company to company. Because of the intellectual capital nature of their products, there are so many questions and more room for flexibility on the reporting side than other industries.''
But the ability to show constantly improving quarterly figures appears to be getting harder. More than half of the 300 U.S. firms that have released pre-earnings guidance to Wall Street have issued profit warnings for the three months ending June 30, according to First Call/Thomson Financial.
Analysts already had been expecting a comparison to last year to be difficult. Many companies went on a buying spree in the comparable quarter last year when technology officers took advantage of corporate CEOs issuing blank checks for Y2K preparedness.
Meanwhile, spending on technology in Europe this year has not risen as fast as many had expected, Johnson noted.
Wall Street has come to expect that technology companies will be conservative in their profit forecasts, using legal accounting maneuvers and other means to help match or beat estimates. The entire technology sector is expected to post 37 percent profit growth in the quarter.
Instead, investors returned from the Independence Day holiday weekend to warnings that Islandia, N.Y.-based Computer Associates and Houston, Tx.-based BMC Software will badly miss analysts' earnings expectations.
Both companies cited lower-than-expected demand for the mainframe computers in which they supply software. The trend has affected the entire industry because many customers have delayed new purchases until they hear details on shipments and pricing of a new IBM mainframe expected later this year, analysts said.
Investors responded by pounding shares of both companies on Wednesday, with Computer Associates plummeting 42 percent and BMC off 40 percent. The warning raised fears that other technology companies will also issue disappointing results when the earnings reporting season goes into full gear in the next several days.
The negative outlooks continued Friday, when Farmington Hills, Mich.-based Compuware said that poor sales of software would cause it to miss expectations.
On the opposite end, Intel raised eyebrows late last month after the Santa Clara, Calif.-based chipmaker announced it would include a total of $2.3 billion in investment gains in second-quarter results due July 18.
Many companies and research firms traditionally exclude one-time gains from the sale of investments, but Intel's decision will allow it to report per-share profits doubled in the year-over-year period instead of posting a more modest increase.
``Although we've been including Intel's guidance on investment gains in our estimates, it just doesn't seem right to do so as the number gets to be this obscene,'' analyst Terry Ragsdale of J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. wrote in a June 21 report.
Still, massaging numbers has made reading earnings reports more difficult. Other technology companies, including Yahoo! Inc. and Nortel Networks, have gotten into the practice of excluding costs of acquiring other companies - particularly if including them would result in an operating loss.
Intel spokesman Chuck Mulloy suggested the problem lies not with companies but with Wall Street investors wanting few surprises - unless they're good ones - when earnings are actually announced.
``We're not trying to play games, we're trying to make sure everybody understands that the guidance we gave was low and we have higher numbers coming in,'' Mulloy said. ``All we're trying to go is give the investor a sense of what we expect to happen during the quarter,'' he said.
Analysts remain optimistic this will be a good year for many technology companies. Internet network equipment provider Cisco Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news), for instance, still expects revenue growth this year in the 30 percent to 50 percent range, said spokesman Tom Galvin.
dailynews.yahoo.com
Good Luck,
Lee
By L3_Aka_L3 on Sunday, July 09, 2000 - 01:28 am: Edit
Well it was nice of them to tell us after the fact wasn't it. I guess NOK recovery wasn't based on fundamentals or market desire after all. It was a reweighting of the Indexes over in Europe......
The Coming Week in Europe: Doing the Index Shuffle
By Marc Young
German Correspondent
7/9/00 12:41 AM ET
BERLIN -- If you've invested in a European index-tracking mutual fund, the tiny bits of the Continent's blue-chip companies that you own are about to get a good shuffling.
Last week, index compiler Stoxx announced plans to shift its indices to free-float weightings, meaning stocks will be rated on the shares actually available to investors instead of a company's total market capitalization. Firms that still have large government-controlled stakes like Deutsche Telekom (DT:NYSE ADR - news) and France Telecom (FTE:NYSE ADR - news) will see their rankings scaled back considerably, while other, smaller companies may be tossed out of indices like the pan-European Dow Jones STOXX 50 entirely.
For mutual fund investors, that might not mean much more than your portfolio manager getting a headache from having to rejuggle the holdings of his or her fund. But investors holding shares or ADRs of the specific companies being reweighted or thrown in or out of a prestigious index could be in for a rocky ride if they aren't paying attention.
As investors digested the Stoxx news last week, Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom lost heavily while telco-equipment makers Nokia (NOK:NYSE ADR - news), Alcatel (ALA:NYSE ADR - news) and Siemens (SMWAY:Nasdaq ADR - news) all surged higher. By Friday DT and France Telecom had shaken off the initial shock, closing up 1 5/8, or 2.91%, and 1 9/16, or 1.1%, respectively. However, those shares and others could experience continued volatility in the coming week and beyond as investors sort out the final implications of the free-float decision.
On Friday, Stoxx published new estimates based on the reweightings and the effects were considerable. Deutsche Telekom dropped from the second-largest company according to free-float market cap to No. 6, while France's Alcatel vaulted from 13 to No. 5
Stoxx will announce the final alterations to its blue-chip indices after the summer holidays in August and the changes will then go into effect on Sept. 18. Until then the shares of companies thought to be getting booted from indices will likely come under pressure, as investors try to get ahead of the index-trackers who will only rejigger their portfolios when the actual change takes place.
"From a stock-by-stock point of view the changes could be pretty significant," says Anna Mackman, an equity strategist for Credit Suisse First Boston in London. The stocks expected to be adversely affected by the new weighting "will probably work through the initial hit [from last week] over the next couple of months and will then get hit again as the actual change takes place in September."
According to research by Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, German insurer Munich Re and Dutch telco KPN (KPN:NYSE ADR - news) will both be dropped from the Stoxx 50. AstraZeneca (AZN:NYSE ADR - news) and BNP Paribas will take their places. In the euro-zone specific Euro Stoxx 50 French food giant Groupe Danone (DA:NYSE ADS - news) is in and German retailer Metro is out.
Munich Re may get pushed out because the new weightings not only affect big government-held stakes, but also large corporate cross-holdings, which Munich Re and fellow insurer Allianz have extensively. However, things could change rapidly beginning next year, as the German government is working on tax reform proposals that could eliminate a punitive corporate-gains tax and unleash a massive rejuggling of holdings.
After the Stoxx announcement Deutsche Boerse said it had no plans to change its weighting rules for such indices as the Dax. But the national indices would be under pressure to do so if other big international index compilers such as FTSE and MSCI follow Stoxx to free-float rankings, according to Mark Howdle from Schroder Salomon Smith Barney.
And that could mean your slice of corporate Europe might get shuffled all over again this fall or next year.
thestreet.com |
