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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (10911)	7/10/2000 11:29:25 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78470

Mike, everyone is entitled to their own opinions , wrong or misguided though they may be. as a teenage investor I was wiped out in 69-70. It taught me that nothing goes straight up, and that an overly concentrated portfolio is not a good thing, and that professional analysts are frequently bamboozled by the companies that they cover. I hope I have learned from these mistakes. You are certainly right about Buffett. But how many Buffetts are there? I think Paul and Jeff are right in warning people that have not been through a prolonged bear market of the potential devestating experience it can be. Most people do not have Mr. Buffetts conviction to keep buying as the share price keeps dropping for years. Nor do they have WB's ability to know the companies that will be thriving 10 years into the future. Of the 30 companies that I owned during that period I belive only Disney, ABC , and Chrysler have survived, and I think that the appreciation on Chrysler was pretty woeful. OTOH had I just held on to the DIsney stock I would have my own Island now. Mike, you may be the next Buffett but the odds are against it.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (10911)	7/10/2000 1:29:52 PM
From: Craig Bartels	Respond to of 78470

<<I will give that experience may be measured in years. But for any person to claim that he/she is somehow a better investor - or to belittle another investor - because of this experience is ridiculous, petty, and ignorant. Evidently age is not certain to confer at least one quality - the ability to differentiate between population-based generalization and individual outcomes.>> I couldn't have said it better. <<This will inevitably become a battle between the young and the old. After all, how can an older investor not take comfort that his 40-50 years of experience is somehow better than 10 years of experience? And how can someone with 10 years of experience not think that the 10 years mean something? That would take an incredible amount of self-invalidation that is generally not humanly possible. Certainly if one lost a lot of money in the early 70's, then self-invalidating those dues would be even less humanly possible. >> YOu know, it reminds me of when I was looking to build a new home last year, at prices that most people in their 30's would only dream of building. Several older people, older than my mother would be there to show the homes. They would hardly talk to us, you could tell they were almost laughing, "this guy thinks he can build here, and he's half my age! yah right". Well I did. <<I've appreciated the insights of Senior and Bash when it comes to analysis and strategy points. But the overly confrontational and too-personal tone reflects their surnames too often, is not necessary and is one of the major reasons this thread has been criticized as too clubby. A newbie gets at most two strikes, and I'm sure a few have browsed the thread only to not post because of the personal attack that sometimes greets certain posts. >> I will say that when I first got on this thread almost a year ago, I felt the exact same way, actually still feel the same way. I've never been on a thread where everything I post is "sandblasted" by people. I stay on this thread because I have found many, many awesome value stocks to buy. Mike, excellent post. chbartel

To: Michael Burry who wrote (10911)	7/10/2000 2:41:51 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78470

I am not talking age of the investor. I don't believe I ever mentioned a person's youth. It's a benefit imo, when we are in a bull market or times like now. Because those with the greatest guts make the most money. That's usually youth vs age, imo. I am talking experience years in the market. And how people come to learn what works. How do you learn Mike? Take a key issue everyone must face. Market timing. You've read and summarized what, 65 books on investing? What do these books mostly or all say about trying to time the market? You've got 8-9 years market experience. How many times have you come on this thread in the past few years to announce you're going to cash or reducing positions because the market is too frothy, expensive, etc. Then come back later to say you're in with a buy on such-and-such. Wasn't it just about 3 months ago you posted to Jim Clarke you were ceasing to try to time the market and instead henceforward intended to pick up bargains as you saw them? Are you not moving closer to the way the 'the experts' (authors) say you should invest? Do you not see yourself as a better investor now, with the experience you have, than where you were 4-5 years ago? Paul, who sees years in the market as improving one's investing skills and abilities (asymtotically)

To: Michael Burry who wrote (10911)	7/13/2000 1:43:33 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78470

To Mike Burry who requests "Can we keep this stuff to a minimum" directed to Paul Senior (who is described as "snide, snooty, smearing, a belittler, lacking self-control and self-awareness, a person who pushes others down, named "Senior", overly confrontational, too personal, causer of thread clubbiness, ignorant judger" I'll bet you've just been waiting to vent -g- Lucky for me you are a person who wants to keep this stuff to a minimum. Paul.