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To: The Ox who wrote (69381)	7/10/2000 2:45:37 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

Looks like the same type of shakeout as before last quarter's earnings. Only difference is that no one seems foolish enough to sell/short the producers this time around. Too bad because I made a killing off of the foolishness last quarter.

To: The Ox who wrote (69381)	7/10/2000 3:42:28 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

That 500K of extra Saudi crude is sour, as I suspected when they announced the increase. OPEC is already pumping all of the "good stuff" they have. Interesting article about the politics of pricing. Aggressive Saudi Term Oil Prices Seen Preparation for New Supply slb.com "It is very difficult to dispose of a large amount of sour crude without giving discounts, therefore there might not be much room to sell the (additional) sour," this OPEC marketing official said. ... We still expect a substantial cut," he said, adding that with most of the extra Saudi barrels likely to go to Aramco's Asian customers, European buyers were likely to get only 3-4% more Saudi crude than they received in June and July. In those months, volumes had been cut by around 25% from nominated levels. ... "Saudi has never played outside OPEC. It can do what it sees right through OPEC so why override it?" he added. He suggested that Saudi could be challenging other producers' output capacities claims and making clear that if there was a need for an increase some of them might have to allow Riyadh to be the source of most of the extra barrels.