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Gold/Mining/Energy : Copper - analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (151)	7/10/2000 7:28:15 PM
From: tyc:>	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2131

<<<This growth will add >450,000 tonnes to demand next year ..... is there really that much idled capacity ? There is an interesting graph at the follwing URL (Rio Algom's Annual Report) rioalgom.com The graph illustrates future demand and supply as forecast by Brook Hunt. It seems to show consumption this year at 14.6MM tonnes, barely more than figures implied for 1999 in your recent memo on consumption. However, for next year it shows consumption growing to 15.2MM tonnes, an increase of 600,000 tonnes ! Who am I to argue ? But when you consider that before the Asian crisis world demand had grown at a compound rate of 4.1% through the nineties,and had reached 16,000,000 tonnes per annum, these figures could be rather conservative. Between 1993 and 1994 consumption grew by 835,000 tonnes and between 1996 - 1997 they grew by 807,000 tonnes, according to the chart referred to in my last memo.

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (151)	7/11/2000 8:35:04 AM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 2131

biz.yahoo.com I suppose you have seen this report on yahoo today on the very subject we have been discussing. Two lines are particularly appropriate; 1. "...copper would probably need to rise to a minimum of $1.00 per lb for a sustained period of several years to make starting up the US operations attractive."" (talking about BHP's closed mines) 2. "... This is a demand generated market and that means more volatile." It is my observation that copper prices in recent years have not demonstrated the same volatility that they had in early nineties and before. I would look for that volatility to return.