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To: John Graybill who wrote (2945)7/10/2000 3:53:33 PM
From: chic_hearne  Respond to of 436258
 
John, The SOX and Naz have collapsed under their own weight at the end of trading today. AMD was doing fine when the Naz was at even, as well as the SOX was. Now the Naz has tanked 50 points late in the day dragging everything else down with it. 11 SOX stocks in the red. There's a ton of short interest in AMD and I suspect they are all going to be rushing to the door at the same time with no sellers in sight. We're going to see a 10++ point breakout day before their earnings next Wednesday. Upside potential is huge because many ANALysts have been burned by AMD in the past so they have set expectations low so they don't look bad again. This in turn has lead to a large amount of shorts that have been fead disinformation and have no idea what they've gotten themselves into. My only fear is a general SOX breakdown because the other 15 stocks are severely overvalued. This is the first accurate report on the state of AMD's business I've seen since I started buying calls back in the high 30's. From BoA today:

MG: AMD: Banner Accomplishment

11:52am EDT 10-Jul-00 BofA Montgomery (Whittington, Richard L 212-583-824) AMD
BANC OF AMERICA SECURITIES ** MONTGOMERY DIVISION ** BANC OF AMERICA SECURITIES

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC. STRONG BUY

July 10, 2000 SEMICONDUCTORS NYSE: AMD

Richard L. Whittington (212) 583-8246; Analysis of Sales/Earnings
rwhittington@bofasecurities.com

DJIA: 10636
S&P 500: 1479

PRICE: $82.00 FYE 12/31 1999 A 2000 E 2001 E
12-MONTH TARGET PRICE: $150 EPS
52-WEEK RANGE: $97-16 Q1(MAR) ($0.88) $1.15 A $1.32
FULLY DILUTED SHARES O/S: 172.0 MM Q2(JUN) 0.53 1.20 1.39
MARKET CAPITALIZATION: $14.1 BB Q3(SEP) (0.72) 1.46 1.64
AVG. DAILY VOL. (3 MOS.): 5,405,856 Q4(DEC) 0.43 2.08 1.90
SECULAR EPS GROWTH: FISCAL YR ($0.63) $5.90 $6.25
FY 2000E REVENUES: $4,942.0 MM P/E N/M 13.9 13.1
MARKET CAP./REVENUES: 285% P/E/G
3/00 TOTAL DEBT: NONE
3/00 LTD/TOTAL CAP.: 138.1%
3/00 ROAE: 15.9%
3/00 SHAREHOLDERS' EQ.: $1,064.1 MM
3/00 BOOK VALUE/SHARE: $6.19
DIVIDEND/YIELD: NONE

Banner Accomplishment

AMD closed the June quarter with momentum for a robust second half and we believe stands on the verge of widespread investor acceptance. Already clearly out of the doghouse, AMD is now a recognized microprocessor innovator and Flash powerhouse. A radical departure from Wall Street's perception, we believe AMD is about to be catapulted back onto investor buy-sheets and must-own lists.

Orders remain strong in the company's three principal businesses, microprocessors, Flash memories and networking peripherals. We anticipate a perceptible upside to our published $1.20 per share estimate on $1.15 billion in revenues and for additional healthy upside in the second half.

As a result of enhanced second half visibility, we have raised our price target to $150 from $100. Our Street-high EPS estimates of $5.90 (untaxed) and $6.25 (31% tax rate) for 2000 and 2001, respectively, remain intact. However, even on our new price target, the indicated multiple is a mere 24x next year's estimate, suggesting material upside ahead should AMD execute upon our model.

New capacity is being ramped rapidly with management indicating the new Dresden, Germany facility (Fab 30) now in excess of 1,200 wafer starts per week. Our due diligence, to the contrary, suggests that Dresden is now running at 2,000 starts per week (not the per month mistakenly placed in last week's note). Yields are running progressively higher and speed grades of processors produced now routinely exceed Austin, TX's Fab 25.

Combined with benign to improving Flash contract pricing and banner accomplishment in x86 processors, rapid capacity gains set the stage for significant upsides to our 2001 estimate. As opposed to the $6.2 billion in revenues 51% gross margin and $6.25 per share we're now modeling, we can easily envisage revenues pushing $7 billion, gross margins 60% and earnings double digit - after tax.

AMD Exploiting Microprocessor Boom

AMD's performance 7 Series (ex-Athlon) Thunderbird is being produced in rapidly increasing quantity in Dresden, whereas the value line, Duron, is being ramped in Austin. Thunderbird is targeted at the high end of Intel's Pentium
III family, whereas Duron is rapidly replacing AMD's still strongly demand K6 family (upside shipments in Q2) and targeted at Intel's Celeron.