To: techguerrilla who wrote (24863 ) 7/10/2000 6:38:00 PM From: Jim Willie CB Respond to of 35685 some considered thoughts on JDS Uniphase this deal tells me that a raft of fiberoptic component firms are very undervalued this deal tells me that JDSU executives regard their stock as overvalued... they wouldnt spend their currency so liberally unless they thought it was expensively priced... the takeout offer for SDLI was at 28 times sales, rather pricey ok, ok, both JDSU and SDLI are pricey next comes analyst comments, guidelines, and assessments that JDSU as a combined entity will have the benefit of somewhat slower business growth rates, thus justifying a somewhat smaller PEratio... despite the fact that fiberoptic is the screamingest sector in the tech world, a $100B firm cannot grow at 70% per year... but Uniphase might anyway... synergies notwithstanding, I suspect the peddled notion will be that JDSU cannot grow as fast anymore since it is now bigger on the technical side, we have now a failed double top downtrend on the stock price chart... volume was huge today, as it led the Naz in volume with 67 million shares traded... support is noticeable but not strong at 90 and at 100... I wouldnt be surprised to see 100 hold for a little while... but the real support is the spring low of 80 unfortunately right now, JDSU, ETEK, and SDLI strong earnings are keeping this stock up... well, many things are keeping it up, but in the shorterm the trio of strong earnings will continue to keep it up... whether JDSU recovers somewhat to 110-115 as earnings wind up, who knows? .. but after earnings are announced, I see JDSU wallowing between 85-100 into August I personally believe the best shorterm plays now are shorting high flyer tech stocks... I am just fantasizing about Sept200 Brocade PUTS and Sept170 Siebel PUTS... post earnings droopies are the order for the day IMO... August sucks the proverbial dead donkey annually... I dont buy for one minute the premise that since this spring saw a huge tech decline, a weak August will be avoided... not one iota... these big tech winners are gonna see some profitaking for sure... BRCD just saw a nice 3-4 legs up... ditto on SEBL... does anyone think BRCD will be 195 or SEBL will be 170 on August 12th ??? we have not completed the perverse transition from fears of higher rates to fears of what higher rates hath wrought (slower economy, slower sales, slower earnigns growth)... the earnings warnings have only begun... say goodbye to the July earnings run... it aint showing up I have said for two weeks now that everyone, his/her brother/sister plans to sell into the July rally... THUS the July rally will NOT happen... sell before August, take the kids or your mistress to the beach, buy stocks in mid/late August I am lining up some small scale shorts... if MikeMurphy is right, we should hear a high profile earnings warning coming out of the tech world by Wednesday... if it comes to pass, the July rally can rest in peace, dead meanwhile, QCOM continues on its well established downtrend channel... it will probably seek out 50 simply because it contains a zero... it cannot seem to rise past its 18day Moving Avg, which was mid-60's last week... since the market cannot seem to grasp that QCOM owns 85% of the intellectual property for the ghost standard wCDMA, I cannot see how anyone would buy this stock except for a nice 9-18 month hope that the world comes to its senses... I call wCDMA a "ghost" since it doesnt exist in any form of reality yet... imagine, QCOM took a $40 billion beating from a ghost... yesterday I read that NOK and ERICY owned the wCDMA standard... I must repeat my disdain and disrespect for Qualcomm's Public Relations dept... pathetic is an exaggeration in high praise... they cannot seem to beat the drums and convince with daily newswire notices that QCOM owns 85% of patent rights within the "yet to be defined specs" for wCDMA... wow, what an effing disaster... and I bought it all the way to the geedee dumpster just some idle thoughts from a jackass / Jim (in cash and surveying)