To: Gottfried who wrote (35706 ) 7/11/2000 1:54:30 AM From: Jeffrey D Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976 More on Mr. Joseph's call. Jeff << SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST: CHIP WARNING FORCES RETHINK ON TECHNO-HYPE 97% match; The South China Morning Post - Hong Kong ; 11-Jul-2000 12:00:00 am ; 520 words An analyst's report predicting a slowdown in semiconductor shares caught many unaware last week, but on closer inspection it may not be so surprising. United States analyst Jonathon Joseph from Salomon Smith Barney spoilt the party by predicting a slowdown in semiconductor demand in the next six to nine months, earlier than previous predictions, which saw the present cycle peaking around 2002. According to Mr Joseph, declining prices and slowing shipments will hit chip-makers, with Texas Instruments, AMD, National Semiconductor and Silicon Storage Technology being downgraded. Taiwan heavyweights Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) and United Microelectronics felt the pressure, their share prices falling sharply on Thursday, the day after the report's release. The report has prompted a rethink of how buoyant semiconductor demand is, and comes in stark contrast to recent hype over technological advances that make heavy use of the latest chip developments as well as standard chip components. The main cause of the rethink has been indications of a slowdown in demand for mobile phones, which use flash memory and other semiconductors. According to Neal Stovicek, head of research at National Securities in Taipei, wireless phone prices fell about 10 per cent in the first half, with growth in demand also slowing. For flash-memory makers, that means leaner times ahead. Flash chips on the American IC Exchange are trading at about 55 to 65 per cent of their January highs as a result of an increase in output and slowdown in demand. In addition, recent statistics from the US indicate a slowdown of its economy, which could have an impact on retail sales and personal computer demand. Recent supply problems with Intel chips and increased competition from Taiwan's VIA and upstart Transmeta are cutting prices for all players. Prospects for DRam (dynamic random access memory) makers remain strong, however, with the benchmark 64-megabyte 8x8 PC100 DRam recently selling at US$8.88, which compares favourably to its January high of US$9.12 and its February low of US$4.70. DRam is mostly used in personal computers and notebooks. Despite a dramatic week on the Taiwan stock market last week, prospects for Taiwanese foundries remain good. Last week, TSMC reported a 20.8 per cent month-on-month sales growth for June, with year-on-year growth coming in at 105 per cent. TSMC sees a solid 18 months ahead, with company spokesman Guo Shan-shan pointing to its wide variety of products and services as a reason for its strength. Merrill Lynch Taiwan analyst Dan Heyler is also unconcerned by the big fall in US chip-makers, reiterating his near and long-term "buy" ratings for the company. If anything, last week's fall in semiconductor stocks has focused attention on the uptake in various forms of electronic technology and may see developers of new products reassess their strategies. High fees for third-generation mobile-phone licences in Europe have prompted speculation that operators will raise prices to cover costs - putting a dampener on demand. Already in Asian markets such as Taiwan, the uptake in latest WAP (wireless application protocol) cellular phones has failed to meet expectations. One analyst said there was a high likelihood that a majority of cellphone users would bypass the new technology and wait for the next wave of high-speed mobile Internet access devices. The big problem is Internet-savvy users are largely disappointed with the low quality and slow speed of WAP access, while non-Net users are too bamboozled to bother. Only when a new standard comes on the market that suits those users wanting to upgrade will cellphone sales again take off.