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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockHawk who wrote (27664)	7/11/2000 11:42:55 AM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Well this really sucks. I just did a post and it disappeared. I shall try one more time. Uncle Frank, Stockhawk good call on Buffett and Q. If you just take the handsets alone - NOTHING ELSE. Here is how a chicken scratch Buffett calculation might go. 2004 - 1 billion cell phones sold. 35% are CDMA. 60% have Q chips in them (being very conservative). Qs chip prices fall to $15, royalty rate to $4.50 350 million CDMA phones x 60% = 210 million phones x $15 x.35 margin = $1.1025 billion chip profits. 140 million non-Q chip phones at $4.50 per in royalty = $630 million in profits. total very conservative handset only profits in 2004 = $1.7325 billion/741 million shares=$2.34 eps x 65 multiple =$151.97 stock price in 2004. Discounted at 15% you get a fair value today of (again for the handsets alone very conservatively valued) of $87 {152/1.15^4). Or 58% appreciation from here just for about the most conservative handsets alone estimate of Qs value. Tinker

To: StockHawk who wrote (27664)	7/11/2000 11:54:54 AM
From: areokat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>I've mentioned before that I have a long term investment in Pfizer, a stock that is not discussed on this board. Six months ago, or so, I did see it mentioned here quite a few times, people would mention it in passing as a stock they sold because it was not performing and the near-term did not look promising.<< Pfizer is about a 10 bagger over 5 years in my son's portfolio. Wish all my picks had done as well. Other examples that will probably do the same are intc,csco,msft and now qcom. Intc was labeled a few months ago as being too big to grow much and would under perform the market. Out performed the market is what its done making it a 100 %er a year for the last two years for me. One or two of the other three will probably do the same. Sitting tight is a hard habit to learn but it sure pays off. Tom