To: mact who wrote (471 ) 7/18/2000 10:24:36 PM From: ms.smartest.person Respond to of 615 Evening Analysis: Minor Market Mud-Slide on Tepid Tuesday 18 Jul ,2000 With the market closing yesterday on fairly slack volume, Tuesday's near 400-point drop should not be too surprising or worrying. The HSI fell 393.95 points or 2.2% to 17,440.83 on volume of HK$10.19 billion compared to Monday's 248.62 point rise on turnover of HK$11.8 billion. Hutchison (13) and China Mobile (762) were the leaders on the turnover scoreboard today, but neither managed to break HK$1 billion on this downcast, rainy day. The day was in part reacting to mixed news overnight on Wall Street where the Dow declined about 0.1%, the Nasdaq increased about 0.7%, and the S&P 500 increased a wimpy 0.03%. Basically, the U.S. market went nowhere, but since Hong Kong likes to be whipped about, the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers and the recent build-up in the local bourse together were enough for HK traders to decide that direction for the day had been dictated from above. The rationale was that those banished interest rate fears have suddenly re-emerged with the CPI figures the potential bearer of bad news. HSBC (5) gave up some of its recent gains and closed down HK$2.00 or 2.0% at HK$96.50 while subsidiary Hang Seng Bank (11) gave up 2.8% or HK$2.25 to HK$79.25. Investors should be cheering because this is another opportunity to buy on the dips. Those who decided the behemoth and its more localized version were still nimble enough to be worth a wager remember HSBC in the 80s just a month ago and Hang Seng in the low 70s. Shunning new age counters may not be the quickest way to wealth, but neither is it the quickest way to ruin, and with patience, both banking stocks will see happier days again soon. Other banks fared mixed. Bank of East Asia (23) was unchanged at $19.35, but Dao Heng Bank (223) dropped -- again -- 1.1% or 40 cents to HK$35.50. The second-tier banks could be good buys, especially if HSBC and Hang Seng offer good quarterly results in two weeks as expected. Virtually everything else today was down, so the problem is not the economy but simply that local punters are taking profits while the going's good. China Mobile (941) gave up 3.6% or HK$2.75 to erase yesterday's gain exactly and end back at HK$73.00. China Unicom (762), which generally rises or falls a few dimes, dropped HK$1.05 or 4.9% to HK$20.40. Hutchison (13) gave up ground again, though this time it was rather unspectacular with the conglomerate losing just HK$1.00 or less than a percent to HK$117. Turnover was virtually identical to yesterdays HK$954 million at HK$956 million. Perhaps it was that last HK$2 million that sent chills through the market. The property players seemed to lose their pilings today with Cheung Kong (1) down 2.3% or HK$2.25 to HK$94.50, Henderson (12) down 90 cents or 2.4% to HK$37.10, and Hang Lung (10) and New World (17) both down 15 cents or 2.2% and 1.4% to HK$6.55 and HK$10.45 respectively. Sun Hung Kai (16) dropped just 50 cents or 0.8% to HK$63.50, while Hysan (14) fell a rather large 45 cents or 4.6% to HK$9.30. Two of Monday's noisemakers were Hikari Tsushin (603) and Softbank (648) who rose 37% to 54 cents and 21% to HK$1.99 respectively with rumors of a PCCW buyout of Hikari the main driver. Today, both gave up more than two-thirds of those gains with Hikari down 9.5 cents, 17.6%, to 44.5 cents and Softbank down 25 cents, 12.6%, to HK$1.74. Legend (992) was about the only big-name gainer. The stock rose 30 cents or 3.7% to HK$8.45. Legend will soon become an HSI constituent. However, the top gainer today was very thinly traded Cedar Base (855) which rose 12 cents or 21.4% to 68 cents on news of its taking of piece of Tomorrow International's (760) PCB business. Tomorrow also gained 11.6% to 38.5 cents. Neither company offers much to merit real interest, and this is a good example of small investors piling in before understanding what this will mean to the businesses. One may expect the shares to not be so fortunate in the future. Tomorrow will be affected by the release of U.S. CPI figures, but the sell-off today may have been overdone, so investors should not hesitate to invest in quality counters if the time frame is a little longer than that of the average speculator, though we do expect tomorrow to not differ significantly in terms of action.quamnet.com