Stockdoc, thank you for the details, but...
24,000 deaths, to decide among the 0.5M to 1M cases is something like 1 in 20 to 1 in 40, this odds are quite usual when treating (overtreating sepsis) to get to the unfortunate ones in time and effectively (saving their lives), especially when changes can happen in few hours.
Lilly mentioned 500,000 (and is a number of septic shock subjects, not deaths) clear candidates for zovant or any other effective product, and we will see that number and even more depending in the safety of the product.
Icos pafase has the advantage in my view, not the time advantage of course, which now belongs to zovant, they could be combos too, different modes of action.
Proteome contaminants amounts have being control well for long, viruses could be filtered even at time of infussion (I do not think it will be needed) and prions has not being a problem in most of the recombinants (but granted, most are from yeast/bacteria)and why so much problem anyway since most prions have being related (so far to my knowledge) to central nervous system products, not the cell lines use in recombinats.
If one is goind to die at 67 a prion 15 years later is a bargain, not if one belong to the other 20 or 40 who was going to survive anyway, then market will indeed be smaller. I do not foresee the prions to be a deterrent, cause they will not be common, indeed extremenly rare.
FFP comes from multiple donors, even the mamalian cell lines eventually are from few more easily control sources, and I hardly doubt it will be cheaper.
Example is MEDI, they change the plasma derived Respigam for the recombinant Synagis and it works better, safer, and cheaper for the company, a big difference in profits, Medi from just another biotech to a name next to Amgn,bgen,dna and practically with one product (true, it is not mammalian derived).
But, based on that Tktx has a hard chance, all their cell lines are mamalian (they try to say it was human, not mamalian, in court!)but is not the technology is the Amgn patent.
But, my understanding of it is fragmented, even like that, the bax has not developed the product and their are aware of the benefits, to the point of going in the xoma ride looking for an antisepsis product. The bax products seems to be dead on arrival, if zovant keep going they will not even have subjects for trial due to ethical reasons (maybe out of the US).
Lilly trials (pI, pII, pIII probalby has shown at least the inmediate side effects, the others will be known after years in the market, just another big trial, like rezulin, viagra, redux, trovant, and so on...).
The insurance companies are going to pay, no way they could not, they will not withstand social pressures, or the business go to Hillary.
But,the products could save ICU time, post surgery time, and money, it will not be a hard sale. The insurance companies are going to be lucky since it looks like three good products are coming: zovant, pafase, tifacogin, rbpi21 (well 4, ok), and there will be competition as years past by.
rbpi21 if ever demonstrate the animal results in humans should have the advantages in the market since is a real killer of bugs, but this is a big IF and I am not betting on it (I can wait for the facts, no rush).
Patients do survive septic shock, but it should be nice to get a treatment that increase one chances and maybe even less sequelae (even with th risk of prions).
Blue, well What I am doing here, obviously trying to make a buck, but I keep missing the xoma bus ride when it moves (based on financial gimmicks or whatever). Nice group for couple of years anyway. Icos hit $50 (too bad I was out at $46). Do not cry for me Argentina, keep sending the eggs!
Looking for my second entry point... in Icos. |
