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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (27722)	7/12/2000 4:55:54 AM
From: shamsaee	Respond to of 54805

Would appreciate a brief summary, since I can't access 1-800 numbers from overseas.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (27722)	7/12/2000 6:38:53 AM
From: sditto	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Here’s a comforting thought for all you QCOM longs: I’ve had this nagging feeling in the back of my brain that somehow the CDMA Gorilla Game was going to play out differently than the games that have come before it. After all, this is the only game taking place in a highly regulated field where the emerging Gorilla is not only under attack from entrenched competitors but the outcome seems highly dependent on regulators and politicians with agendas extending far beyond free market economics. What cured that nagging doubt last night was watching Clayton M. Christensen talk about disruptive innovation in his Telecosm 99 presentation at webevents.broadcast.com. What struck me was a powerful side effect of DI - namely, the market size of a DI is both unknowable and continuously underestimated. Furthermore, this is never more pronounced than when the DI is in the hands of a Gorilla. Once this condition occurs there is a certain inevitableness that not only will the DI take over what turns out to be a huge market but that additional markets heretofore only guessed at emerge for the Gorilla to dominate. Who would have thought: - CSCO could go from routing e-mail at Stanford, to capturing the enterprise market for routing, hubs, and switches, to building out the Internet, and now moving into optical, wireless, home networking, etc. - INTC could go from powering hobbyist PCs, to enterprise servers, to web server farms, and now moving into multi-media, mobility, etc. - MSFT could go from providing languages for hobbyist PCs, to desktop operating systems, to network operating systems, and now moving toward network based services - ORCL could go from providing a relational database for minicomputers, to client server, to the web, and now leveraging into the enterprise application space I see direct corollaries for QCOM and the CDMA space: - The current market for wireless voice and data services will be a much larger than currently estimated - The future wireless market will include huge new opportunities which are only now being imagined - CDMA will have a much larger market share in both current and future markets than currently estimated - QCOM will be able to leverage its Gorilla position into dominant market share positions These predictions are probably standard fare for QCOM longs – the takeaway for me is the inevitability of it all based on the progression of past Gorilla Games. Large multi-national corporations and now even entire governments will give way to the unyielding power of a DI. As other markets emerge (particularly in non-regulated areas) stopping the DI wielding Gorilla will be like trying to stop the march of time.