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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (8097)	7/12/2000 1:50:10 AM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Respond to of 9719

V1, We simply have different approaches. When I decide to buy something, I don't care too much about the exact price. I took another 1K of INCY this morning at $103. I sat and watched it for a while and when it looked good, I just put in a market order. I do not know why Viropharma had a big move in the last few days. It could have been triggered by a misunderstanding of the Soros filing. Even Rick got it a little confused on the first round (if memory serves). The rest could well be momentum players. All that said, I do not see the reason why Viropharma has been so depressed. I really think it was way oversold and it needs to go up some to be at a reasonable valuation. I don't recall you saying specifically why you didn't invest in Viropharma, but you may very well have; I have sporadic trauma induced memory problems. Personally, I really like their approach and that's why I put money in it. I invested in Gliatech and Incyte based on a fairly careful analysis of their products and intellectual property. I invested in Viropharma more because of a gut feeling that they are on the right track for dealing with viral infections. Also, I was impressed with their very real results against viral meningitis and polio. That was sufficient for me to throw some money on the table. I am aware of the problems NABI has had. And continues to have. But I am discounting it some since it's from the human blood products business. I expect them to get out of that one when they can, but for now, it pays the bills. And some of the products are necessary until replacements are developed. I'm not trying to exonerate them, but I have known some of the people who donate plasma. It's a rotten business and it is fraught with problems. What segment of society do you think is willing to donate plasma for pay? The pay is really pretty lousy. But many of these people are desperate and they will attempt to donate more often than they are allowed to. Fake ids are not hard to come by. You also cannot count on them to tell the truth about anything. And good luck hiring good people to work in those clinics. Again, no excuse, but this is a lousy business and probably the worst aspect of the company. Then again, where would you think they got the raw material to identify and patent a strain of S. aureus? By the way, although I consider the thread for it extremely poor, I do like Immunogen. Yes, I know their history. But TAPs intrigue me. Thanks, Torben P.S. We're in full agreement on Incyte and Gliatech :-) And I think we share Biotransplant as well. We did agree on Neurocrine Biosciences, but I merely lightened up a bit when you sold off the entire position. You were absolutely right about being able to buy it back at a lower cost later. But I'm nowhere near good enough to call tops and bottoms. Someone - Baruch? - was once asked how he got rich. The answer was: ``By never selling at the top and never buying at the bottom". I like that one.

To: Vector1 who wrote (8097)	7/12/2000 1:53:41 AM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Respond to of 9719

P.S. I almost added to my not inconsiderable position in Gliatech today. Looks good. But I haven't a clue as to why it is moving now. I'm just sitting on the sidelines and chuckling :-)