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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (27763)	7/12/2000 2:07:41 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I have a big bunch of SEBL(getting bigger every week, without any assistance from me:-). So I speak as a fan. I know that nobody else has anything nearly as good a tool as SEBL's system. Siebel has first-in advantage. Everybody will say, "I'm trained on Siebel" or "I'm used to Siebel" talking about the interface and the capabilities. Whatever Ellison says, he doesn't have those capabilities and his interface isn't the same. But ORCL and SAP do have the advantage that 1. They get to see all the possible customers for a Sales Force Automation system and Customer Support Software. 2. In principle they can integrate info from within the company and from suppliers and from the customers. I believe that somehow this is the thing of the future, maybe the very distant future. In a system which closely coordinates all this information there is likely to be new power. We see that Siebel recognizes this so they have an alliance with I2 and its soon to be acquired Aspect Development. They can provide hooks to any of the standard data base management systems. So an integrated system may be created outside of SAP and ORCL. When they have such a system and we software people are writing addons for it and not for SAP or ORCL systems because the market for their integrated systems is too small; then SEBL will look like a gorilla to me. Like I say, I predicted no flight to the moon would succeed; I also predicted that by 2000 there would be at least 15% unemployment. (Because automation would eliminate dumb jobs and generate smart jobs that fewer and fewer people could fill.) Seeing the way I look at Siebel simply shows you what people with ordinary information will think, not necessarily what actually is the case.