Why Gore has no advantage:
POLL RELEASES
July 6, 2000
Americans Credit Industry More Than Government for Booming Economy
Federal Reserve gets more credit than Clinton or Congress
by Lydia Saad
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup has recorded a remarkable sense of economic prosperity among Americans in recent years. That success has translated into impressive job performance scores for President Clinton in his second term, and possibly explains his resilience when faced with impeachment in 1999. Now Democrats hope that Vice President Al Gore will be able to ride Clinton’s successful record on the economy all the way to the White House this fall. But when viewed on a comparative basis with other factors, Clinton’s impact on the economy seems far less impressive to Americans than one sector of American business tested by Gallup: "the computer and Internet industry." According to a Gallup survey conducted June 22-25, only 29% of Americans say Clinton deserves a "great deal" of credit for the positive state of the economy in the past few years compared to 56% who feel this way about the computer and Internet industry. Clinton also lags behind the Federal Reserve in credit for the country’s economic success, and he is either tied with or only slightly ahead of Congress, depending on the survey measure used.
When perceptions of the economy declined in the early 1990s, President George Bush seemed to take the fall, first evidenced in plummeting approval ratings from the public for his handling of the economy, and eventually in a drop in his overall job performance scores. In contrast, two-thirds of Americans, 66%, now describe economic conditions in the United States in positive terms, compared to only 18% who felt this way when President Bush left office in 1993. Recent polling shows Clinton enjoying highly favorable ratings for his work on the economy with 65% approving of the way he is handling the economy and only 30% disapproving.
Still, when asked to rate a series of factors relevant to the economy, the public credits the computer industry (the only business sector tested in this series) with a greater impact on the economy than all the government entities measured in the recent Gallup survey, with 56% saying it deserves a great deal of credit. The Federal Reserve ranks second, with 34% saying it deserves a great deal of credit for the economy. Fewer recognize the Clinton administration (29%), increased foreign trade (25%) or the Congress (13%) as significant factors.
The Fed Beats Clinton in Square-Off on the Economy
Americans’ relatively high regard for the work of the central bank is reinforced in a separate survey question that asks respondents to choose whether the Clinton administration or the Federal Reserve led by Alan Greenspan deserves more credit for the positive state of the economy. Fifty-three percent name the Federal Reserve while just 38% credit Clinton. In addition to Republicans, upper-income and highly educated Americans are most likely to choose the Federal Reserve rather than Clinton, perhaps reflecting their greater awareness of the direct role the bank plays in the economy by setting interest rates.
Republicans and Democrats Closely Matched
In this election year, with Vice President Gore attempting to capitalize on economic prosperity in his bid for the presidency, the more relevant political question may be whether Americans think the Clinton administration or the Republican-led Congress deserves more credit for the economy. Indeed, each side claims that its policies are responsible for low unemployment, high economic growth and federal budget surpluses, all of which have all contributed to the positive economic picture. Asked to choose between the Clinton administration and Congress, Americans are closely split, with 44% saying Congress deserves more credit for the economy and 42% naming the administration. The division falls neatly along party lines, with three-quarters of Republicans (74%) crediting Congress and 70% of Democrats crediting Clinton. Political independents are almost evenly split, with 42% citing Clinton and 40% choosing Congress.
And, at least for now, Gore appears to be losing the economic argument to Texas Governor George W. Bush. Asked which candidate for president would be better able to maintain economic prosperity in the United States if elected, Bush wins by a slight margin, 43% to 38%. Gallup’s most recent election poll shows Gore trailing Bush in the race for the presidency by a 13-point margin, 52% to 39%.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,021 adults, 18 years and older, conducted June 22-25, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For each of the following, please indicate how much credit, if any, they deserve for the positive state of the economy in the past few years -- a great deal, a fair amount, not much or none at all. How about…? [RANDOM ORDER]
A great
deal
A fair amount
Not
much
None
at all
No
opinion
June 22-25, 2000
the computer and Internet industry
56
29
7
3
5
the Federal Reserve
34
45
11
3
7
the Clinton Administration
29
39
20
10
2
the Increase in foreign trade
25
42
19
7
7
Congress
13
50
29
5
3
If you had to choose between the following groups, to which one would you give more credit for the positive state of the economy in the past few years -- [ROTATED the Clinton administration (or) Congress]?
BASED ON -- 511 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A, +/- 5 PCT PTS
The Clinton administration
Congress
NEITHER (vol.)
BOTH/
EQUALLY (vol.)
No
opinion
2000 Jun 22-25
42
44
5
2
7
If you had to choose between the following groups, to which one would you give more credit for the positive state of the economy in the past few years -- [ROTATED: The Clinton administration (or) The Federal Reserve led by Alan Greenspan]?
BASED ON -- 510 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B, +/- 5 PCT PTS
The Clinton administration
The Federal Reserve
NEITHER (vol.)
BOTH/
EQUALLY (vol.)
No
opinion
2000 Jun 22-25
38
53
2
2
5
Who do you think would be better able to continue the good economic times the United States has been having in recent years [ROTATED: Al Gore (or) George W. Bush]?
Al Gore
George W. Bush
No opinion
(NA) 2000 Jun 22-25
38
43
19
(vol.) = volunteered response |
