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Technology Stocks : Computer Associates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DEER HUNTER who wrote (4682)	7/12/2000 5:16:21 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5232

I am going to guess: the conference call details on visibility (and credability)....and what the street thinks of the general sector for the next half year (which right now I think they will err to caution like in the old days when IT Capex was questioned and everyone took a bath)........ right now the market....IMO....is in a see what we can do mode while the earnings season plays out....then we go into, get out of the way mode if the outlook is sour....and as always...just like a bear market walks, talks, and catches everyone.....heading into phase two. but the more I lean this way...perhaps the more you should use me as a contrary indicator..... I just see too much risk in the valuations given the performance questions that lie ahead...and this is something Edwarda, I believe, would agree.... she never went for a daredevil approach....and didn't play sentiment that much other than to simply recognize it... but then again..... CA when you fear it the most has often reared up and run the other way.....but they haven't even given the offical line yet in the CC...so this time its a bit unusual it seems to me.... I remember years ago buying them on a fall like this...maybe a year or two before the asian crisis....and what I thought was a steal turned into a 50% loss on paper....with about six months to get back even..... I'm not cheering u up am I. on the other hand....you might have more to lose by selling now than further downside to come.....though the p/e could start approaching say the 20's/teens.....which would bring them back to an old style set of values....and from there they make fundamental progress and re-build their following on the street.... spinning my wheels here without traction.... J

To: DEER HUNTER who wrote (4682)	7/12/2000 8:22:55 PM
From: Marq Spencer	Respond to of 5232

DH, I'm in the same boat as you are. Very long on CA and down a bunch. I too thought that we were looking at new highs later this year. Looking ahead, my personal thoughts differ from Joel's. I think that the down side is already baked in - maybe lose another point or two but that's very limited compared to the upside ahead. Think about it, even with the lowered estimates (around $2.85 for this year) CA's PE is below 10x! I think a value guy recommended this stock yesterday on Bloomberg. I think that three things will happen this year to move the stock up - IBM G7 cycle in the second half, improving software purchasing climate, and a focus a CA sales to show Wall St. what CA can do - I remember that when CA missed in Dec 1996, sales came with a vengeance for the next six quarters. However, I don't think that the recovery will be rapid. My gut feel is that it'll take three quarters of solid numbers (beating the revised estimates by 2-3 cents each quarter) to get back to the 50s. BWDIK. - Marq.