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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (3500)	7/12/2000 11:01:31 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

The inflection point on all the curves of these metals is the same. metalprices.com metalprices.com Copper starts out with a much bigger inventory, but look at the drawdown - 300,000 MT this year alone. metalprices.com The slopes of the inventory would make a nice linear inverse relationship to the growth in Asia. I think we're going to need something other than a soft landing to stop Asian led commodity inflation. As long as our economy is robust enough to support their expansion (ok, as long as the dollars are flowing from AG's bosom), the growth in commodity demand, of which oil is the most important to inflation, will continue. Big chunk of any new supply of oil will go to China. Last year their crude demand surged 7%. They alone could consume most of OPEC's spare capacity within 1 year. Non-OPEC supply 1st production was DOWN 2% and 2000-2001 new Non-OPEC supply will be trivial. My guess is that we run out of OPEC excess supply this year. That's about the time when silver inventories hit zero, too. Works out well. -g- simmonsco-intl.com