Robert, Warning, extensive post!
Here is "The Best of Kitco" so far this month. I keep track of the superior analysts on that site from my experience there since near its inception. I believe the first word I typed a search for on the internet was "Gold" and the first site that came up was Kitco. Guess my bias is evident, but also tempered by experience, ggg.
Decimated by an extended Bear Market in gold, Kitco has a whole lot of chaff these days, but the wheat is still worth sifting. These posters are not always right, but they are more often right than wrong. Some are TA guys non pareil.
The Bottom Line, get ready, goldbugs time is not yet, but it IS coming:
Date: Fri Jul 14 2000 02:19
cyclist (circular) ID#333265:
Copyright © 2000 cyclist/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A powerful 29 year cycle comes into play,where gold
will be kept in a tight band and inching higher.
I believe 272 has been the bottom for this year,the XAU still has to make
make a bottom based on its earnings and will track the main market
in its slide.
I will give you the years 72,43,14,1885,1856 where the miners
made a combined low with the mainmarket based on its earnings
valuation,every rally that ensued was indeed a powerful one.
The present financial health of most miners is tenious and
will be translated in lower prices yet to come in conjunction
with the rest of the markets.
Cash is king for now.Personally I'm out of goldstocks and only hold
physical,complementing my cash position as indicated before in previous
posts.The disparity will widen between gold and goldstocks.
NEM and PDG as the majors have a weak financial picture.
NEM has an interesting chart where it made three declining tops
it broke its trendline at 21 from its 98 low.This tells me we have a lot
further to go on the downside.
Date: Fri Jul 14 2000 01:26
circular (Norwester (Sheesh......first APH......then SKI........and, now, e tu, cyclist ?!?!) ) ID#342319:
Copyright © 2000 circular/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
perhaps it's misguided to draw a parallel with the 1999 oil market, but when crude was making repeated failed rally attempts from the $11 level,
technicians kept projecting a move down to $7. Even with the prospect of an OPEC agreement in March 99, the most optimistic view was a rally to
$17, and then back down. But here we are, over $31 again, even as OPEC starts to open the taps again. Bottoms are true to its name.
@cyclist ... is it possible that your cycle projection resolves as an inversion? My projection is just the opposite. Up into October, and then down for the
duration toward $200/oz.
Date: Fri Jul 14 2000 00:52
cyclist (Cycles and seasonals) ID#33490:
are giving a major sell end next week for the gold stocks.
No reprieve in sight until first/second week of October.
Target objective 38/40 on the XAU with an explosive rally to follow.
Conserve capital,short or hedge.
The above FYI FWIW.
Main market following a presidential election script,making a
high in August with a sharp decline into October with an inflationary
bull market of 9 to 12 month to follow.
Date: Thu Jul 13 2000 21:20
Barrick (XAU Update - Crucial point dead ahead - Gold stocks are at a crucial point here as the ) ID#260220:
Copyright © 2000 Barrick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
continuing struggle between bulls and bears draws to a critical point from which we should have a resolution. The US Dollar remains the key since gold
tracks the dollar closer than anything else and from a technical standpoint, it is a waste of time to track the price of gold since more important
information can always be gleaned through the analysis of the dollar and the XAU. While gold will of course ultimately dictate where the XAU goes, it
is really the "forest" while the US dollar and the XAU are the trees we want to be looking at. The US dollar remains on a short term buy from June 6
with solid resistance at the 110 level, not far from current levels. On an intermediate basis, the dollar is still on a sell unless it breaks 110 and then 112.
The XAU is on a short term buy signal as but remains in a declining channel from which it has been confined since the beginning of June. However, the
daily RSI on the XAU and the GOX as well as on Barrick and Newmont has broken above the comparitive XAU levels thus creating the bullish
divergence that gave rise to the short term buy signal for Barrick and Newmont. The fact that the XAU has held up despite dollar strength and the poor
reception to the recent auction is positive but from a technically correct point of view, we would not be out of the woods until the XAU broke 62.50.
On the downside, the 54 level remains key support with a break on volume likely leading to a test of 48 and a move below that to 40. I added Barrick
on the short term buy and am maintaining a trailing stop to protect profits. I am holding ASA longer term. I expect the upside/downside struggle to be
settled by the end of July at the latest when the stock market should be topping out leading to a late summer smash that will likely weaken the dollar
enough to drive it down through support thus giving gold a boost. I don't see new lows in the XAU unless the dollar breaks resistance at 112. The
dollar moving to 110 will likely drive the XAU through 54 support but that should hold unless 112 is broken in which case the 40 level comes into view.
Look for the XAU to take off if the dollar turns hard down from 110 or slightly above current levels. In the meantime, tight stops are the order for
scalpers while longer term, I would not be afraid to take positions with the expectation we could "possibly" see a 25% drop from current levels before
a final bottom is reached.
Date: Thu Jul 13 2000 09:22
uptick (gold) ID#277249:
Copyright © 2000 uptick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Commodity funds and other investors are expected to bale out of gold following the worst ever UK gold auction.
The Bank of England said that the seventh auction of 25 metric tons or 803,600 ounces were allotted at the dismal price of $279.75 per ounce. This
compares with the Wednesday morning fix price of $282.85 and the discount of $3.10 shocked the market, causing the price to dip to $280. In the
majority of previous auctions the allotment price was at a small premium to market levels and at worst a 50 cent discount.
Even more significant, the auction was only 1.3 times oversubscribed, illustrating that demand is weak said a London bullion manager. He blamed the
Northern hemisphere summer months and slack physical demand and interest.
Illustrating the torpid state of the gold market, The London Bullion Market Association said that the daily average volume on the London market
amounted to 28.2 million ounces in June. This was 10.5% higher in May levels and the highest for the year. Sounds encouraging until you look back
and find that in 1997 daily volumes were 35 to 40 million ounces. In 1998 and 1999 daily trade was also over 30 million ounces.
The fear now is that The futures funds which were buyers of gold derivatives in recent weeks and caused volumes to rise last month, will be forced to
cut losses and dump metal. There is thus a risk that gold could sink back to the depressed $270 to $280 range again.
The next two UK auctions will be held on Tuesday 19 September and on Tuesday 7 November 2000. The remainder in January and March 2001. The
bank has thus sold 25 out of 150 tons in the current round of six auctions. In the previous auction cycle it also sold 150 tons.
Meanwhile the Bank of Switzerland has been far more successful in selling its quota of 150 tons than its British counterpart. It offloads bullion by selling
regularly at the London fix without disrupting the market. The Bank of Canada also sold some gold recently without any impact. Gold is forecast to
average $288.08 an ounce this year, or 3.4% higher than 1999, according to a Reuters poll of 22 mainly stockbroking analysts. They predict it will rise
to $302 next year.
Date: Thu Jul 13 2000 04:10
SKI (Correction) ID#212282:
The 10/7/99 date should have been 10/7/98 on my last post.
Date: Thu Jul 13 2000 03:53
SKI (John Disney) ID#212282:
Copyright © 2000 SKI/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It's appropriate to feel a lot of uncertainty. If prices had been rising here and the gold stocks had closed at monthly highs yesterday, then I'd have NO
uncertainty about this 1 down 2 up run. But we're near monthly lows so it's reasonable to be careful here about being bearish.
However, I have no concern about the effects of auctions, leasings,etc. I really have zero concern about that. The system's been operating thru the
period you mention, 1997 to present just as well as before. The last 2 runs of 1 down 2up occurred on 2/18/00 ( followed instantly by 10% down )
and on 5/6/99 ( the BOE announcement occurred that weekend so that the drop on the Monday after the announcement ended the up run at 2 up,
making the bearish pattern complete and yielding an immediate 20+% drop after that Monday big drop. However, each of those runs occurred right at
highs after solid moves up. I could go on and on with examples. On 3/22/99 ( a secondary high ) got that run and dropped 10% over 12 trading days.
10/7/99 was a beauty-- look at a chart. But that was also a big high. The next one back was a fairly bad, inaccurate 1 down 2 up run on 7/7/98 where
prices rose about 9% higher in 2 weeks, then fell 25% below the 2 up run price.
Date: Wed Jul 12 2000 21:45
SKI (Update) ID#212282:
Copyright © 2000 SKI/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The gold stocks closed down today completing the bearish 1 down 2 up run. The run marks an exact high 75% of the time and almost exactly the high
the other 25%. I'll be going short as soon as possible, needing an up day to short the stocks. The stop will be complex and unlikely requiring up and
down movements. I'll be gone on Sat. for 2 weeks, but will leave a message or two with Norwester if the stop is hit ( almost impossible in that time
frame ) . The small drop today made prices fall back very slightly below the resistance of the 35-39 day back prices that were hit yesterday. The most
interesting possibility for the bulls is a complete and immediate collapse right now ( and I mean it has to be immediately and every day down ) every day
for 5 or more days to provide a 2 up 5 or more big run down. Unlikely to happen, but if it does the run analysis would then buy at the bottom for a
significant rally. A collapse of 8 or more days would mark a super bull market ( again, don't get excited, there's an extraordinary low probability of that
happening ) . Kaplan notes that we've turned bearish as a site. The daily xau is oversold while the hourly is overbought. Perhaps a few more mish-mash
days up and down before a major downwave unfolds. I have to be very bearish over the next month or more.
Date: Wed Jul 12 2000 12:42
nomercy (China needs more oil) ID#207145:
Copyright © 2000 nomercy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
China's oil industry continues to be plagued by the scenario of demand exceeding supply, according to sources from the State Petroleum and Chemical
Administration.
China still needs to import large amount of oil from abroad as no major discoveries of oilfield or technical breakthroughs in the industry have been
made, the sources said.
The country's oil demand reached 200 million tons this year, and the figure will increase by 4% every year, industry officials predicted.
However, the oil output stood at 160 million tons last year, with no big increases in the past few years, according to the Shanghai Daily website.
Despite the fact that China has ranked fifth in the world in oil output for l3 years, the country is also a big oil consumer. It shifted to an oil
import-oriented country from an oil exporter in l993. The officials said that China's oil imports will probably account for 40 % of the total oil
consumption by the year 2010.
China has very rich oil and gas resources. By the end of last year, the country had found 20. 3 billion tons of oil resources, but experts believe that the
figure represents only 20% of the total.
Sources said that China is set to develop a number of large oil and gas fields to increase its annual oil and gas output up to 300 million tons by 2010.
These oil and gas fields will be located in the Songliao Basin in the northeast, around the Bohai Sea, in the west and northwest.
Meanwhile, China will strengthen its cooperation with other countries in oil-gas development, so that it can obtain from abroad 50 million tons of oil and
some 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas.
chinaweb.com
Date: Wed Jul 12 2000 11:16
D.A. (silver) ID#7579:
It appears that the tech funds were in there yesterday and this morning adding to short positions. The boyz were very accomodative.
Date: Wed Jul 12 2000 10:04
D.A. (predictions) ID#7579:
BWP:
The problem is that they all will be wrong one way or ANOTHER. There's going to be no muddling through with somewhat higher prices. Either the
price is going orbital or it is staying down here in the dumps. If it goes orbital, it's going to go just like all the other moves and that is fast.
All the analysts predicting years of rangebound action for silver are apt to be wrong too. Since a collapse back to the $4 area seems extremely unlikely,
their combined errors seem to point in one direction and that is up.
Date: Tue Jul 11 2000 18:44
APH (Humbel) ID#7223:
The 7/20/2000 date being of some significance based on the bradley indicator and few other things all peg the time between 7-19 and 7-22 as a point of a
major turn or acceleration in most markets, the bradley says its a high,
Date: Tue Jul 11 2000 14:27
APH (Smithy) ID#7223:
Copyright © 2000 APH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SnP - I wouldn't be looking to short the snp unless it closed under 1475 for the week, to me ut looks like its getting ready for another move up to 1650.
xau/gold/silver - no change unless 63.50 on the xau is taken out
objective 48.00/under 250/under 4.50
Posting of trades - there appears to be some confusion on my posted trades, if I recommend a trade it will always have some kind of loss protection, any thing
else is just an opinion and I wouldn't neccessaily put money in it. ex. buy coffee at 87 stop 83 a trade
looks like coffee is going to 110 an opinion no trade
I consider these trades low risk because you have an opportunity to get a close stop in on the 2nd day of trade, if you decide not to move the stop you're
assuming more risk, ex buy coffee at 87
next day move stop to just under lows 3 rd day stopped out at 86.75
back in at 83.00
mkt now trading at 93
the trade recommendations are good only the day posted, if you wait 1 or 2 days later, the entry and stop points will have changed or the trade may no longer
look good
good luck
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Date: Fri Jul 07 2000 11:18
APH (Smithy) ID#7223:
also stopped out of the bacon bits, made money but not as much as I had hoped and gave back some profits too, coffee - stopped out yesterday with a small
loss looking to try it again between 82-83 sept, SnP - the buy was yesterday or before this mornings report should take out 1500 and higher this time, I see
no hope in the metals for at least 6 weeks no change in down side objectives
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Date: Wed Jul 05 2000 21:39
APH ( XAU/Gold ) ID#7223:
Copyright © 2000 APH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the attached xau chart is an update of a previous post, the significant point here is the continued failure of price to hold above the channel line, based on this
chart a projected low in the xau will be 46-45. Of course another 20% drop in the XAU will impact gold/silver even more negatively, gold sub 250, silver
drops though 4.90 look for 4.50
coffee - the 87.00 objectve was hit his morning, my 87.00 buy was not filled went in at mkt 87.40, stop moved up to 86.75, if you are in the trade and are
stopped out be prepared to jump back in, the seasonal low isn't untill next week, it may be coppy near this low
Pay special attention to cyclist and APH, they are really good. DA also has a good track record, but is usually early.
Best Regards, and back to internet vacation,
Roebear |
