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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (3807)	7/14/2000 2:17:21 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Thursday, July 13th: Dynamic Series Update 200% correlation to market: SPX Long - TITAN 30.2 SPX Short- TEMPEST 4.9 NDX Long - VELOCITY 59.8 NDX Short- VENTURE 16.4 Notice the numbers skewed heavily Long for tomorrow in the SPX just in time for PPI #'s. Why? Because trend followers know in the last 50 years there has been a 73.3% chance the market as measured by the S&P 500 will be up *tomorrowas compiled by the Stock Traders Almanac thank you Yale Hirsch. Only one problem with this: The only two higher probability chance up days (75.6%)for the SPX to supposedly have deck in your favor* and close up this year in 2,000 (Jan 4 and May 2nd) were both hard down day affairs in the SPX check for yourself. Tomorrow will provide more fireworks based off the PPI. We also know SPX inability to close above SPX 1,500 since April 11th puts the market at a very important cross-roads right here and now. Today was day 2 that SPX 1,500 could not get taken out on a close. We closed at SPX 1,495.84. SPX all time high is SPX 1,527 set back to back on 3/23 and 3/24. Tomorrow this can get taken out on a benign number in relation to market expectations. Or, we turn right back down and go test SPX 1,440 support on a bad number. If you look at DOW in relation to SPX you will see that DOW inability to take out DOW 10,815 on a close and that these fibonacci followers know DOW 10,863 has not been 100% retraced from that June 5th intraday high. If DOW 10,863 is taken out on a close tomorrow the DOW DIAMOND FORMATION is toast. If we shoot south right out of the blocks hard you will know the diamond formation is still in play. DOW 10,336 is first support and DOW 10,200 is death row support. The DOW closed at DOW 10,788.71 and up a 5th day in arow. In a worst case scenario, an impending close below DOW 10,200 prior to the bell and I would buy some DJX way out of money puts for July expiration 7/20. It would be a furious assault south on Monday and Tuesday. This is a slim probability chance occurrance at best but one that exists and put on record for the MITA chronicles. For my fav lurkers. <g> ******************************************** Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 696 Million SPX Short- URSA 294 Million NDX long - OTC 3,602 BILLION NDX Short- Arktos 85 Million XAU Precious Metals 42.6 Million Money Market 890 Million NDX closing in on magic NDX 3.8 Billion number. An up day affair tomorrow would put it over this threshold, but we are close enough for the counter-trend right now. SPX 5 day RSI closed at overbought 74.50 DOW 5 day RSI closed at extreme overbought 79.65 Again with a benign market expectation number we can get mid 80 extremes on the relative strength index on a hard out of the gate upside market. Puts ought to be dirt cheap in any upside break-out after the first hour. NDX 5 day RSI closed at 69.35 so there is still room for upside. IIX 5 day RSI closed at overbought 74.31. XAU 5 day RSI closed at 44.10. 30 is oversold level and 20 and below is extreme oversold. I have not talked about the XAU in awhile. XAU 54.24 intraday low on April 13th has not been pierced although we have come close several times. Today we closed at XAU 55.70. Most recently we hit an intraday low of XAU 54.32 on July 7th. If 54.24 gets taken out tomorrow intraday or close on support, then XAU 48.50 will get assaulted within the next week. However, if we hold the line right here and now, I still have been looking for that elusive XAU 68 resistance test. And as you can see by the record low assets in XAU, wouldn't it be ironic if she blew the XAU volcano tomorrow. Gold bugs will be in ecstasy. Best Regards, J.T.