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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick E.McDaniel who wrote (158496)	7/13/2000 8:56:37 AM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Patick, my analyst reports are on another system, so sorry, I can't give links. In addition, note that analysts' published estimates are often not what they are telling clients at the present time, and many are loathe to publish higher numbers, thus lowering the chances for an upside surprise in their minds. Nevertheless, some are putting what they are saying into writing: Merrill, in a note from 11 July: "Our Q2 sales and earnings per share estimates are $7.94 billion (up 29%) and $0.21 without investment gain. Consensus sales is currently at $7.85 billion with EPS of $0.21. Since most analysts include investment gain in their numbers, we are essentially $0.01-$0.02 ahead of the Street." H&Q, in a note from 11 July: "Q2 EPS should at least meet consensus forecasts with strong product margins producing modest potential upside." Winnitzki's published number is at consensus. I do not know of a single analyst that is talking about the risk the DELL will not meet numbers. Most who have not published recently (Morgan Stanley's Gillian Munson and PJ's Ashok Kumar come to mind) have been talking about an upside surprise. edit: Another piece of data that gives me confidence that the market is discounting an upside surprise is that DELL management at the end of June publicly stated confidence in the consensus estimate of $0.21. Given that DELL management rarely comments on earnings estimates, this was taken by many analysts to mean that $0.21 is now a floor rather than a most probable outcome. I truly believe that DELL current stock price discounts $0.23 in earnings, and perhaps $0.24.