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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (660)	7/13/2000 9:22:51 AM
From: pgerassi	Respond to of 275872

Dear Dan: Let me take a crack at a somewhat improbable Q2 upper bound without the Comm. sale. 1) 200K of 1 GHz Athlon. Since the current price is close to what large OEMs paid for it during the quarter (GTW may be selling the Slot A Tbirds that it purchased to the DIY market due to their glitch at what they got it for). Thus the ASP was about $837 (from JC's) and the total is $175 M. 2) 200K of 900 and 950 MHz Athlon for $500 (using same method) each giving a total of $100 M. 3) 400K of 850 Mhz Athlon for $306 giving a total of $123 M. 4) 600K of 800 Mhz Athlon for $229 giving a total of $138 M. 5) 800K of 750 MHz and lower Athlon for $150 giving a total of $120 M. 6) 5M of K6 for $55 giving a total of $275 M. 7) AMD 750 Chipsets and Embedded CPUs for $100 M. 8) Flash for $400 M. 9) All other (fabbing Vantis, Comm. before sale, networks, etc.) $100 M. Totaling it all up gives $1,531 M. Now this is an upper bound based on what we know. 2.2 million Athlons shipped is above most mainstream opinions, even here on the "supposed" AMD cheerleading thread. This amount of revenue would lead to around $500 to $550 Million in profits or around $3 a share pretax. This would be "Warp Drive" earnings and require taxes to be paid this quarter. But like you said, this is "Pie in the Sky" numbers. Possible, but not likely. Pete