Here's ChangeWave Investing's weekly newsletter. It's long but there's some interesting points made including a bit on the short-term outlook. I just got the book yesterday so haven't read it yet but I get the feeling it's going to confirm stuff we already know.
BB
ChangeWave.com's WaveWire Weekly
Making Your New Economy A More Profitable Place to Live
July 12, 2000: Volume 1, Issue 11
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The companies mentioned in this week's WaveWire include: Alcatel
(ALA); GlobeSpan (GSPN); Aware (AWRE); Yahoo! (YHOO); JDS Uniphase
(JDSU); XM Satellite (XMSR); Phone.com (PHCM); VCampus (VCMP); GRIC
Communications (GRIC); and Alteon (ATON).
IN THIS WEEK'S ISSUE
1. More About Answers And Questions.
2. Short-Term Market Forecast - Still Time For A Surfin' Safari.
3. The Kahuna's Big-Picture Rant - Volatility Is A Small Price To
Pay.
4. Buzzwords Of The Week - All In The DSL Family.
5. Hot Sector Of The Week - Get Up To Speed With DSL.
6. Investable News On Our Favorite New Economy Companies.
7. Question-And-Answer Time - Stock Floats And After-Hours Trading.
8. Wave O' The Week Makes A Comeback
9. Check Out The Big Kahuna On AOL.
10. Wine Finds - The Great Taste From Down Under.
11. The Magic of "ChangeWave Investing"
1. DIGGING OUT FROM UNDER
We're finally beginning to climb the mountain of e-mail that we've
received. Thanks for your questions and sticking to the rules.
Here's a refresher course in case you've forgotten.
* Keep your questions short.
* Check the website first. We have a glossary of terms and a
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) section. They can answer many of
your questions.
* Don't expect a direct answer. We may answer it in an upcoming Q&A.
* The SEC forbids us from giving personal investment advice.
Send your questions to research@changewave.com.
Each week, we will try to address the questions that seem to crop up
the most.
2. HOW'S THE WATER? OUR FEARLESS SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL MARKET
FORECAST-Market Outlook: Surf's up: Earnings Strong and Stronger
I've been deluged with questions about a certain well-known
investment advisory service and editor that I highly respect that
predicts a 20-25% correction starting today and lasting for the next
few months.
The prediction is based on the pre-announcement warnings of a
handful of enterprise software companies that constitute a
"elongated sales cycle in enterprise software companies" similar to
the Y2K slow-down of late 1998.
My answer is to go to the ChangeWave Alliance field experts in
enterprise software and ask them. Here is the gist of their
real-world, first-hand observations: WRONG!!! (Sorry J.C.)
Take the Brio Technology (BRIO) blow-up. According to the guys who
sell against them every day, BRIO blew-up because we are now living
in a petabyte (a quadrillion bytes) data-storage warehouse world and
BRIO's architecture can't handle it.
Take the BMC Industries (BMC) or Computer Associates (CA) blow-ups.
To our Alliance members, this is old mainframe software houses
selling into mainframe houses that are turning into JAVA/ XML-based
application server houses. Look at the movement of BEA Systems
(BEAS), ART Technology (ARTG), SilverStream Software (SSSW)-all
JAVA-centric software.
My take is that the major ChangeWaves of the New Economy Enabling
Industries are overtaking last-generation computing models. IBM is
not the center of the computing world anymore.
I'm sure the advisor is right in his call that a major tech company
is going to come in light on earnings over the next few days and
blame it on "the sales cycle." What I can't fathom is how this will
translate into a 20% Nasdaq correction in light of the 25% average
earnings growth we will see in the upcoming weeks.
My advice is, of course, to turn any market panic sell-off into a
buying opportunity-use volatility to your advantage. So, I guess I
hope he's right.
But I would not bet the farm. In my world, the network is the guru.
And our network says for the right companies and the best-positioned
spaces of the New Economy enabling Technology Industries (NETI),
surf is up and the water is great.
3. THE KAHUNA'S 21ST CENTURY INVESTING CONTEXT
Investable Context: Volatility is the price of admission to High
Growth-By Tobin Smith
Kids, let's face this one now before we get too far down the trail
together: Day-to-day stock price volatility is the price of
admission to the high-growth investment world.
If you want the high returns, you are absolutely going to have to
accept the volatility. No volatility, no big 50-100% portfolio pops
for you.
So repeat after me: To get high growth, I must learn to ...
A) Endure the brain damage of higher market volatility;
B) Reduce unnecessary business risk by loading my growth portfolio
with the companies best loaded with proprietary intellectual
property and management to dominate explosive, long-term
irreversible growth markets;
C) Reduce unnecessary market risk by balancing my stock portfolio by
industry and business risk according to my "Sleep well at night"
personal risk acceptance-ometer.
Business risk is the risk of the business going broke. Industry or
sub-sector risk is the maturity of the field-how old it is and how
far along it is in its development. The more mature the industry or
sub-sector, the lower the industry risk. The more profitable and
cash laden a company, the lower the business risk.
Notice I did not mention "market risk." Market risk-the daily ups
and downs of publicly traded securities markets-is out of your
control. Balancing business and industry risk exposure to your
personal comfort level is not.
Your job is to decide for yourself what percentage of your dough you
want in the four basic kinds of investable growth industries-we call
this your personal risk profile.
Game-Over Dominated Industries: A single company (G.O.D. stock for
short) that commands dominant market share and a majority of the
market valuation dominates the industries or sub-sectors. Think
Microsoft.
Emerged Leader Industries: These industries have a market-share
leader that is cash-flow profitable and likely to claim the
Game-Over Dominator crown. Think JDS Uniphase.
Emerging Leader Industries: These industries are new enough that two
or more profitable/soon-to-be profitable contenders are fighting it
out for the top spot. Think Broadvision and Vignette in the
e-commerce platform software space.
Late-Stage Venture Capital Industries: These industries are all
potential, no profits and the most speculative of the bunch. Think
virtually all dot-com spaces or single-drug biotechs. Numerous
players have a shot at the title or one company that invented the
industry has a shot at winning it all.
Here's your five-step plan to live with volatility.
1) First, if you are going to invest your money in the growth,
aggressive growth and speculative growth industries, you HAVE to do
a personal gut check to get the right personal risk profile mix.
The best way I know how to judge if you have too much risk for your
personal risk profile is the sleep at night test. If you miss sleep
worrying about certain stocks, you have too much money in 'em-get
out of 'em and rebalance.
2) Limit your sectors to ones growing with as great a degree of
certainty as humanly possible. We, of course, recommend you limit
your sectors to the New Economy enabling Technology Industries. We
list the ones with the greatest magnitude of growth and market
opportunity-we call 'em "SuperSectors"-at ChangeWave.com.
3) Limit your stocks to the dominant leaders/co-leaders of the
sub-sectors within the SuperSector according to your business risk
profile.
4) Match your stock picking to the percentage of business risk you
are willing to accept.
(See the example below.)
5) Invest in sectors you deeply believe in. The No. 1 thing you have
to have, to endure volatility, is a deep, deep belief in the
certainty of the irreversible growth ahead of you (or the strength
and duration of the "wind at your back" for those of you who prefer
a sailing metaphor).
For example, with enterprise data storage needs doubling every six
months for the foreseeable future, that area is a SuperSector that
we all can understand and deeply believe in.
If you had $10,000 for the sector, and were looking to put 25% of
your money in each of the four categories of risk, you'd build your
stock picks like this (If you want the actual stocks, try our paid
advisory service.):
Game-Over Dominated Space: Storage area networks (i.e. EMC, that's a
gimme);
Emerged Leader Space: Fiber channel switches or network storage
appliances;
Emerging Leader Space: Low-cost network attached storage;
Late-Stage Venture Capital: The data storage service space or
domain-fault tolerant storage technology.
Add a few more SuperSectors you deeply believe in, arrange your
stock selections according to the business risk of sub-sectors or
spaces, and now you have a diversified and risk-balanced growth
portfolio.
When you have matched your convictions and your stomach to your
portfolio, riding out our modern high-volatility markets is a
helluva lot easier.
4. NEW ECONOMY INVESTING BUZZWORDS OF THE WEEK:
ALL IN THE DSL FAMILY
Have your Internet experiences left you feeling the need for speed?
Well you and about 10 million others in the U.S. alone feel the same
way. And when tons of people switch from an existing thing (in this
case 56k modems) to broadband high speed connectivity, we call that
a ChangeWave. And where there's a Wave there's new wealth for us to
make.
Among the most popular high-bandwidth technologies out there now
(cable, ISDN and Satellite), DSL gets the most ink. And for good
reason.
In theory, Digital Subscriber Lines (DSL) hold out the promise of a
convenient, high-speed connection along current phone lines with
minimal fuss. Before you attack us, look at the first two words of
that last sentence, "in theory." The reality of DSL is somewhere
south of that point, but it still has the potential for greatness,
provided some of the kinks get worked out.
To make money off this ChangeWave you have to understand the basics.
DSL allows an always-on, high-bandwidth Internet connection (at
transfer rates up to 6.1 megabits per second downstream, but usually
limited to 1.5 megabits for individual connections) over regular
copper telephone lines. Most DSL connections allow you to use your
telephone for conversations while maintaining that high-speed
computer connection, thus eliminating another hole in the wall or
wire that needs to be snaked here or there. Ironically, the science
that permits this comes from the limits of analog transmissions.
Analog information utilizes a small portion of the capacity that is
available over copper wires. The analog transmission limits of these
lines top out around 56 kbps (in practice about 53 kbps) for data
connections with ordinary modems, which is slowed by the conversion
of data from digital to analog and back again. DSL connections
eliminate this bottleneck by allowing the digital data to remain
digital and the analog info to stay analog, making higher speeds
possible.
The problems with DSL? First, the customer must be close enough to
the telephone central office (within 18,000 feet or, for our
international readers, 5.5 kilometers) to be eligible for the
service. Second, and more importantly, there are too many horror
stories that seem to come out of the installation process.
Admittedly, the complainers are the "squeaky wheels" who may be
exaggerating their problems, but anecdotal evidence about setup
nightmares will scare anyone contemplating DSL. If you choose DSL
for your home, be prepared for the installation experience to test
your patience. Add to these the problems of old wiring, bad circuits
and other structural obstacles and you wonder why anyone bothers.
Here's why. If you get past the hassles to a fast connection, you've
just taken a hit of the most addictive feeling in cyberspace. Type
in a web address, click and, boom, you're there. No logging in-it's
always on. Like to download files? There's no time to get a cup (or
two) of joe while you wait. Get your file and get on with your life.
Access to broadband is like the stuff that gets famous people with
more money than brains into the Betty Ford Center. Once you get a
little, you can't get enough.
We could fill this entire newsletter with alphabet soup in a vain
attempt to explain the various terms affiliated with DSL, but we'll
spare you the dissertation and hit a few of the highlights instead.
Take it away Mr. Science ...
xDSL-This term refers to the assorted flavors of the DSL connections
including, but not limited to, ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber
Line), HDSL (High bit-rate DSL) and RADSL (Rate adaptive Asymmetric
Digital Subscriber Line).
SDSL (Single line DSL)-A single-line DSL solution that is symmetric,
i.e. upload and download speeds are the same. This service is most
expensive.
ADSL (Asymmetric DSL)-This technology, designed for home use, trades
slower upload speeds for faster downloading. The great thing about
ADSL connections is that analog signals can be transmitted
simultaneously along the low end of the signal transmission negating
the need for a new phone line for the broadband connection. ADSL is
growing in popularity and requires a signal splitter to facilitate
normal phone functions and a special ADSL modem.
Central office (CO)-This is the physical building where the local
switching equipment is located. DSL lines running from a
subscriber's home connect at their local central office. Although
the local phone company owns the CO, it may contain equipment from
one or more other service carriers who lease space there. So, it
could be possible to get DSL service from another provider even if
your local phone company says it's not available.
Local loop-The line that runs between the home and the local central
office.
DSLAM (Digital Subscriber Line Access Multiplexer)-This mechanism at
the central office links customer DSL connections to a single
high-speed line. When the phone company receives a DSL signal, an
ADSL modem with a splitter detects voice calls and data. Voice calls
are sent to the regular network and data are sent to the DSLAM,
where it passes through the data transport protocol to the Internet,
then back through the DSLAM and ADSL modem before returning to the
customer's PC. The more DSLAMs a phone company has, the more DSL
customers it can support.
Everybody still with us? OK, it's all over now. Mr. Science has left
the building.
If you want to know more about DSL including availability,
installation experiences and technical information, take some time
to visit the extremely useful DSL Reports website
(http://www.dslreports.com). More than likely, this site has answers
to questions that you haven't even thought about asking yet.
What are your favorite hot New Economy buzzwords? Send your
suggestions for the hottest emerging spaces in the New Economy to
research@changewave.com.
5. HOT NEW ECONOMY SECTORS AND SPACES (i.e. SUBSECTORS):
GET UP TO SPEED WITH DSL
The Revolutionary Monster ChangeWave We're Riding: The Broadband
Infogenesis ChangeWave involving the shift of the world's
communication understructure from narrow-band connectivity to a
high-bandwidth data pipe.
DSL Killer Value Proposition: 100-times faster downloads than a 56k
modem. Indy 500 champ Juan Montoya doesn't want to get stuck in
traffic after piloting his racer around the Brickyard at 220 mph. So
why would anyone want to return to the 56k slow lane once they've
experienced the speed of a broadband connection?
The Addressed Market Opportunity: Look for exponential growth in DSL
installs. A study by the Piper Jaffray investment firm predicts the
DSL market will grow from 770,000 households to 12.9 million by
2003. The DSL market is likely to catch on in homes with household
incomes over $75,000, and the opportunity is even bigger in Europe
where deregulation and new phone network construction will make DSL
an attractive Internet option.
How To Best Ride the DSL ChangeWave: Stay away from the DSL service
providers for now. Judging by the constant outcry around
installation and service problems this is not the place a wise
investor wants to be. Instead, look for plays among the equipment
makers and companies working to ease the installation of DSL
service.
Some of our favorite stocks in this sector include:
Alcatel-ALA-French telecommunications equipment and systems company
Alcatel is the dominant player in DSLAMs. ALA's wide reach covers
networking, electronic components, and power and telecom cables.
Alcatel recently signed a deal with one of China's leading optical
fiber and cable manufacturers to make optical fiber in that country.
Alcatel is one of France's largest industrial companies with
interests in power generation equipment, nuclear power systems and
consumer electronics through its stake in the Thomson-CSF unit.
Company revenues rose 7.7% to $5.84 billion for the quarter ending
in March. ALA closed Tuesday at 72 7/8, up a little more than 1%.
GlobeSpan-GSPN-GlobeSpan manufactures advanced DSL integrated
circuits that enable high-speed data transmission over the local
loop. The company's products are sold as chip sets to DSL equipment
makers and are used for transmission applications like Internet
access, networking and telecommuting. GSPN recently completed its
acquisition of iCompression technologies to accelerate its efforts
to complete its system-on-a-chip product for the voice over DSL and
Internet markets.
GlobeSpan's customers include Cisco and Lucent, which performs most
of the company's production work. Company revenues rose 262% to
$31.1 million for the quarter ending in March. GSPN closed Tuesday
at 119 3/8, up about 3.6%.
Aware-AWRE-Aware makes hardware and software that accelerates
Internet access over current copper-wire phone lines. In addition to
the line of DSL chipsets, routers and modems that assist phone
company upgrades, Aware's compression software helps firms with
video, image and data transmission and storage.
Aware's customer list includes Analog Devices, Lucent and Intel.
Company revenues rose 49% to $6.4 million for the quarter ending in
March reflecting increased royalties and improved margins. AWRE
closed Tuesday at 55 1/4, down about 5.8%.
6. INVESTABLE NEWS: CLASSIC GROWTH SECTORS
Yahoo!-YHOO-(July 11, 2000) Yahoo stockholders are probably saying
the company name with a bit more vehemence. The Internet content
Goliath exceeded earnings forecasts in the second quarter by 2 cents
per share. Yahoo earnings totaled $74 million, close to three times
the $27 million earned in the same quarter 1999. Sales growth was
also something to shout about, rising from $129 million in the
second quarter of 1999 to $270 million in the same quarter this
year. Yahoo! closed down 4% Tuesday at 105 1/2. However, it shot up
in after-hours trading. Upshot: Short-term positive. OK, we know
Yahoo! is a G.O.D. stock, but everyone feared their numbers would be
down because of lost ad revenue. Clearly, though all Internet firms
struggle with that problem, Yahoo! is managing nicely so far.
INVESTABLE NEWS: AGGRESSIVE GROWTH SECTORS
JDS Uniphase-JDSU-(July 11, 2000) In a powerhouse move, JDSU moved
to purchase SDL Inc., which makes fiber-optic lasers. The purchase
price was estimated at $41 billion as JDSU positioned itself to
become the Game-Over Dominator of fiber-optic technology. Last
month, JDSU paid $15 billion for communications equipment
manufacturer E-Tek Dynamics.
The purchase price this time was about 50% above SDL's closing
price and sent the stock soaring, which drove JDSU stock down
significantly. JDSU closed Tuesday down 5.4% to end the day at
95 11/16. Upshot: Positive. If the sale actually goes through,
JDSU is well positioned to become the dominant player in a very hot
sector. They plan to use SDL technology to build out advanced
communication networks, as well as increase their own production
capacity.
INVESTABLE NEWS: EMERGING GROWTH SECTORS
XM Satellite-XMSR-(July 11, 2000) XM Satellite did its best to
counter the good news of the Sirius satellite launch. XMSR announced
it has received $235 million in funding commitments. Fifty million
dollars of the new money comes from American Honda, which became a
strategic investor. XMSR closed up Tuesday 8.3% to end the day at
39. Upshot: Positive. This market is ripe for the taking. One or
both of these companies will be in the forefront.
Phone.com-PHCM-(July 11, 2000) Phone.com announced a big deal by
signing up AirTel India, that nation's largest mobile operator.
AirTel licensed the wireless (WAP) platform that Phone.com has
designed. AirTel is part of a venture involving British Telecom and
they previously licensed Phone.com's MyPhone platform for building
its worldwide mobile portal. Phone.com closed down 2.9% Tuesday to
end the day at 66 1/8. Upshot: Positive. Phone.com is a prime player
in the wireless sector and India has a large potential market.
VCampus-VCMP-(July 11, 2000) VCampus, which manages web-based
learning programs, made a nice B2G (Business to Government) deal
this week. It announced that the Department of Veterans Affairs will
begin a six-month e-learning trial program. The plan calls for 9,000
VA workers to take part in about 300 courses from VCampus. The stock
closed down almost 2.9% to end Tuesday at 8 1/2. Upshot: Positive.
If VCampus is going to continue its push into B2G, then it will be
riding two ChangeWaves not one-B2G and E-Learning. That has to help.
GRIC Communications-GRIC-(July 11, 2000) GRIC continues to make
inroads into China. They just signed an agreement with China Netcom
Corp. Ltd. to use GRIC's Voice Over Internet Protocol services in
China. This pact comes on the heels of another similar agreement
with China's JiTong Communications. GRIC closed down almost 5.5% to
end Tuesday at 15 1/8. Upshot: Positive. GRIC is making major
inroads into the largest potential market in the world.
7. GOT A QUESTION?
Now this week's questions...
Question: Could you explain stock float?
The float is the number of shares of a stock that are outstanding
and available for trading to the public. This is sometimes called
the public float. To calculate this, take the total number of shares
in the company and subtract those owned by insiders, employees and
other long-term shareholders from the total shares outstanding.
Several websites also provide this information, such as
Yahoo!Finance.
Question: Could you explain how the after-hours market works?
First, let's explain after-hours trading. This involves the trading
of stock issues or securities while the exchanges are closed. Until
recently, this was the domain of professional traders and
institutional investors, but many of the consumer online trading
services, like Datek Online to name one, are offering this feature.
With more investors taking control of their portfolios, they want
the opportunity to take advantage of news that comes after the
markets close just like the pros. This is the good news.
But, you knew a "but" was coming, there are huge disadvantages to
after-hours trading. One, the liquidity (or number of shares
trading) is much lower than during normal market hours. This may
lead to greater volatility in the issue, especially following news
that comes after the bell. Whether this works to your advantage
could solely depend on luck. In addition, there's a chance you may
not be able to get all or any of the shares you wanted.
Two, the prices in the after-hours market may not reflect the prices
that were available at market close or the opening of trading the
next day. This could leave an investor with a bad feeling if the
after-hours prices are exaggerated in response to news and they pay
too much for an issue.
For example, on June 22 during the flurry of activity when Rambus
(RMBS) settled its patent suit with Hitachi last month, RMBS shares
had a huge run-up in the after-hours markets, trading as high as 144
1/64. The price at the market close June 22 was 97 1/8 and the stock
closed at 114 11/16 June 23 and never went much beyond $120 per
share during that day's session. How would you feel if you had
bought it at 144?
We're not too fond of the after-hours markets for situations
precisely like this. Remember our goal here-to buy and own our
stocks wisely.
8. WAVE O' THE WEEK
Back by popular demand, the Wave O' The Week returns. Each week we
will list the stock that is the Wave O' The Day on our website. You
can also access this info by going to changewave.com
early each trading day and getting both a Wave and a Wipeout O' The
Day.
Today we have Alteon.
Here's a stock market reaction that's easy to analyze. Alteon
(ATON), which makes products to speed up web and network servers,
reported it reached profitability three quarters ahead of schedule.
ATON also reported 80% higher earnings for the fourth quarter.
Alteon shares jumped 29.9% to 131 1/8 in Tuesday's trading.
9. THE BIG KAHUNA ONLINE
If you use AOL, catch Tobin Smith on the Sage Online on America
Online every Thursday this summer at 6 p.m. EST. For AOL browsers
only, you can view AOL MarketTalk produced by Sage via AOL keyword:
MarketTalk.
10. WINE FINDS
This week it's a great wine from down under-Penfold's Bin 389. It's
a blend of Syrah and Cabernet (the Aussies call Syrah "Shiraz" for
some not-so-obvious reason). Big in the mouth, but soft and
drinkable today. Under $22 in most places. Order this at a big
league restaurant and I guarantee the sommelier comes over to
compliment you on your taste and value wine picking. (It's happened
to me multiple times). If you are new to Australian vino, you are in
for a big treat. Cheers.
Go to changewave.com
11. "I WOULD JUST DIE IF I HAD TO WAIT ANOTHER FIVE HOURS FOR
THIS BOOK"
While many WaveWatchers may have very well echoed these sentiments
in the days leading up to the release of my book, (please humor me
for just a moment) the credit for this heartfelt bellow of
anticipation goes to a 12-year-old English lad camped outside the
local bookstore-just moments before the new "Harry Potter and the
Goblet of Fire" went on sale.
With pre-publication sales of close to 1 million copies, and a plot
that was more closely guarded than nuclear secrets at Los Alamos
(actually, a lot more judging from recent headlines), the book has
already become the biggest selling book in e-tailing history.
OK, I admit it. There may not have been any reported sightings of
Big Kahuna costume parties in the streets last week, but "ChangeWave
Investing" did quietly capture for the first time, the No.5 spot on
the monthly New York Times best-seller list. Thanks again for all
your support.
If you haven't already gotten your copy, just follow the link below
for big savings. Though we can't promise you any magic potions,
lighting-bolt tattoos or maroon capes, you will find the best recipe
for picking the next monster stocks of the New Economy. Go now:
amazon.com
HELP US DISCOVER THE NEXT 1,000% MOVER.
If you have enjoyed our Weekly WaveWire, then I have a favor to ask
of you. Are there others who you think would also get value from
our work? If so, please forward this issue to them and invite them
to become a WaveWatcher at: changewave.com. The
revolution is on and you are lucky enough to be in early. The more
people we have, the better our chances of discovering the next
1,000% mover. Thanks again for your support.
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