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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (76548)	7/14/2000 1:13:32 AM
From: DWB	Respond to of 152472

I think 40%/year is a lot more reasonable, and a lot closer to what the consensus of informed opinion is. Is that because you don't think there will be that many subscribers in 2005? Or because you don't think QCOM will maintain the royalty rates? You can couch it however you like, but if the subscriber numbers are there, and the royalty rates are there, saying the percentage growth is too high doesn't make sense. Oh, and is that the same informed opinion that was underestimating QCOM growth by a similar order of magnitude back in it's '98 estimates of '00 earnings? How many analysts guessed that QCOM would be earning the equivalent of $8+ per share (split adjusted) for '00 back in '98? So, I think 6$ EPS in 2005 is a better guess. And, most of all, I think trying to guess that far out in the future (and making investment decisions based on that guess), in an industry changing this rapidly, is little better than tossing dice. You're perfectly entitled to your opinion, as I am to mine. Only time will tell. How many subscriber units did you estimate in 2005? What royalty rate did you assume? Why is it "gambling" to look out to 2005, anymore so than trying to guess where we'll be next month, or next year. If anything, the longterm trend of CDMA dominance in 3G, the trend towards mobile data, and the momentum that mobile systems create once put in place, all point towards a much more likely result if you go out 5 or so years. No company can maintain a triple-digit forward PE over the longterm (5 years). It has never happened, and it never will. Glad to see you're so confident... Also glad to see you weren't around to shoot down those crazy Jacobs and Viterbi guys when they patched together that system that also broke the laws of nature. News flash... just because something hasn't happened before doesn't mean it can't in the future. We've never had a worldwide communication system paying a large amount of royalties primarily to one company either... but we will shortly... And yes, the calculated market cap is absurd, at 2500$/share. Glad to know it. Were you also saying the same thing before the first company reached a $10 billion market cap? or $100 billion? or $500 billion? What about $1 trillion when it happens? If Cisco or GE hit that is it absurd? I'm sure 5 years ago, people said the same things about companies reaching 1/2 a trillion, and MSFT/CSCO don't seem to mind... DWB Q2.5K/Y2K+5