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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (158519)	7/13/2000 2:46:39 PM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 176387

Darrell, RE: viewing Dell as a bell weather in and of itself, then, a shift from negative to positive analyst outlook, must occur before mutuals buy back in (due principally to maximum pessimism, or hangover, generated from Dell's compatriots - IBM, HPQ, and especially CPQ). look at Dell's institutional activity the past three months. the pessimism seems to remain. it appears the mutuals have yet to believe the analysts. once they do, however, money flow will increase; this is partially witnessed by decreasing volume, increasing price. Money flow data is so unreliable that it is useless to me. Looking specifically at mutual funds and their purchase habits, my experience is that it is the other way around. The mutual funds are buyers long before the analysts upgrade. 2nd quarter buy/sell data isn't yet available, so I'll work with 1Q data here. If you ignore the indexers, who buy and sell DELL without really thinking, many accumulated decent stakes in DELL in the first quarter. Fidelity increased its stake form 56mm shares to 77mm shares. American Century went from 16mm to 45mm. AIM went from 3mm to 27mm. Mass Financial, WP Stewart, and Scudder all initiated large stakes of 10mm, 11mm, and 9mm shares respectively. On the significant selling side, Janus did sell 36mm shares in Q1, but is on record as being an aggressive buyer for the entire 2Q. Lincoln Capital went from 21mm to 11mm. There appear to be few other large sellers of note. So, if Dell shows, even at $.23, it should be quite positive. Do you agree? No, not at this point in time. If a few things happen to temper the current enthusiasm for the quarter, then I might change my mind. But at this point and at this price, IMO DELL is discounting at least 23¢ for the quarter. Throughout 1998, you had a situation where the market expected excellent returns, and DELL came through with numbers that were even better still. It seems to me that DELL will need a repeat of that kind of performance to give the stock a significant near term boost.