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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rsie who wrote (262)	7/13/2000 6:16:24 PM
From: rsie	Respond to of 10065

Oh..OH! look out in chip land.... Message 14040615

To: rsie who wrote (262)	7/14/2000 3:52:35 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Richard, thanks for the chart of the S&P500 in the 73-74 bear. It may indeed be quite instructive as to what to look for in the NASDAQ in terms of a rally in a bad bear market. I see the S&P500 fell about 20% initially in the bear. It then made back a bit over 50% in a counter-trend rally. it then rolled over into a devastating drop finishing with the roughly 40% bear from the top. So we had a bear market initial fall followed by a 50% retrenchment followed by the final devastating drop. So how might this apply to the current NASDAQ situation? To keep it simple we fell roughly 2,000 points from 5000 to 3000. We now so far have had a little more than a 50% retrenchment of that fall with a 1,000 point gain off the bottom to a bit over 4,000. We would then expect this rally to end in the near future, somewhere moderately above 4,000 with a rolling over and a potentially devastating fall to come. Marc